Oil market outlook for 2020 Global economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2% in 2020. While the US and China are forecast to slow slightly, some severely hit economies – mainly in Latin America and Turkey – are forecast to recover, keeping the GDP growth momentum unchanged from the 2019 level according to July 2019 OPEC report.
In the OECD, growth is forecast to slow to 1.6% in 2020, down from 1.7% in 2019, due to ongoing challenges in several key OECD economies and despite counter-balancing developments within the region.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 36 member countries, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade.
In the emerging economies, China is forecast to experience slower growth, while momentum in India and Brazil is expected to pick up. Meanwhile, Russia’s growth is forecast to remain at the 2019 level. The 2020 forecast assumes that no further down-side risks materialize, particularly that trade related issues do not escalate further. Growth risks also include ongoing challenges in several emerging and developing economies. High debt levels could pose serious challenges to the countries affected, not only due to limitations in fiscal space, but also if their credit ratings worsen.
Brexit poses an additional risk, as does a continuation in the current slowdown in manufacturing activity. While further increases in US-China trade tariffs have been postponed, other trade-related uncertainties remain.
GDP growth forecast in selected countries/ regions, y-o-y changes, % World oil demand in 2020 is forecast to grow by 1.14 mb/d y-o-y, in line with the current year estimates.
The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.09 mb/d next year, with only OECD Americas showing positive growth, while OECD Europe and Asia Pacific are anticipated to continue to decline. In the NON-OECD, oil demand is expected to increase by around 1.05 mb/d.
