Disruptions in Nigeria, others resetting global oil markets imbalance

International Energy Agency (IEA) says global oil market is rebalancing helped by supply from Iran, Iraq and United Arab Emirates, which is assisting to offset output declines from Nigeria, Canada and Libya.

Militant attacks have seen about 400,000bpd barrels knocked out of Nigeria’s output, and a recent wildfire in the Canadian province of Alberta has taken more than 1 million bpd of capacity offline over the start of May.

Outages from Libya, Venezuela and Kuwait, and a slump in US shale output, have also cut into global output, reports the IEA.

The global energy think-tank says that global oil markets are heading towards a long-awaited equilibrium, according to updated supply and demand data released in its May Oil Market Report.

“Global oil supplies rose 250,000 barrels a day in April to 96.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) as higher OPEC output more than offset deepening non-OPEC declines,” the IEA says.

IEA says that year-on-year, world output grew by just 50 kb/d in April versus the rise of more than 3.5mb/d a year earlier, as “non-OPEC supply is forecast to drop by 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2016 to 56.8 mb/d.”

The report states that OPEC crude output rose by 330 killobarrels per day (kb/d) in April to 32.76 mb/d as a 300 kb/d jump in Iranian flows and a boost in supply from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates more than offset outages in Kuwait and Nigeria.

Saudi output was steady near 10.2mb/d. Iranian supply rose to 3.56mb/d, a level last hit in November 2011, before sanctions were tightened.

The OMR for May revised global oil demand growth for the first quarter of 2016 upwards to 1.4mb/d, led by strong gains in India, China and, more surprisingly, Russia. For the year as a whole, growth will be around 1.2mb/d, with demand reaching 95.9mb/d.

“Stock builds are beginning to slow in the OECD: in the first quarter they grew at their slowest rate since the last quarter of 2014 and February saw the first draw in a year. In March, OECD commercial inventories fell by a slim 1.1mb, with preliminary data for April suggesting that stocks rebounded while oil held in floating storage rose.

“Global refinery throughput for the current quarter is forecast at 79.6mb/d, with the 0.7mb/d year-on-year gain falling below anticipated demand growth of 1.2mb/d. The estimate for the previous quarter has been revised higher by 0.2mb/d to 79.5mb/d. India and Saudi Arabia are set to lead global annual increases this year, reports the IEA.