Nigeria’s 1.49m bpd output contradicts FG’s 1.84m bpd claim

Nigeria’s latest crude oil production data is contradicting the Federal Government’s recent assertion that output had risen to 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd), with official figures from the country’s upstream regulator showing average production of 1.49mbpd in April 2026.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s average crude oil output for April stood at 1.488 million barrels per day, while combined crude oil and condensates production averaged 1.663 million barrels per day.

The figures fall significantly short of the 1.84 million bpd level earlier cited by government officials.

The discrepancy followed comments on April 3, 2026, by Wale Edun, the then Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, who had praised the regulator after being briefed that production had reached 1.84 million bpd in “recent days”.

“It is heartening that you can tell us that you are doing 1.84 million barrels per day. That is fantastic news. That is totally in line with the mandate of President Bola Tinubu,” Edun said during a meeting in Abuja with Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, the Chief Executive of the NUPRC.

He also urged the commission to sustain momentum towards the Federal Government’s 2 million bpd production target, stressing that stability in output was more important than temporary gains.

“What matters is not just reaching certain heights but sustaining it. We don’t want any stopping along the way. The trajectory should be maintained and of course the magic figure is 2mbpd,” the minister said, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.

However, the latest NUPRC report suggested that while Nigeria may have recorded brief production spikes, sustained average output remains well below the 1.84 million bpd level.

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The regulator noted that crude oil production in April fluctuated between a low of 1.46 million bpd and a peak of 1.85 million bpd, indicating that higher figures likely reflect daily highs rather than monthly averages, which are the benchmark used for compliance with OPEC quota requirements.

Nigeria’s average crude production of 1.489 million bpd in April represented about 99 per cent of its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. The country has struggled for years to consistently meet its allocation, largely due to pipeline vandalism, crude theft, ageing infrastructure and underinvestment in the upstream sector.

The April performance marked an improvement from March 2026, when output averaged 1.383 million bpd. Total crude production rose to 44.66 million barrels in April, up from 42.87 million barrels in March, while total liquids increased to 49.90 million barrels from 47.93 million barrels.

Production data across key terminals showed mixed performance. Bonny terminal rose to 8.36 million barrels from 7.99 million barrels, while Forcados surged to 6.65 million barrels from 4.73 million barrels. However, Qua Iboe and Escravos recorded declines over the same period.

Offshore fields also showed divergent trends, with Bonga rebounding to 3.06 million barrels after earlier weakness, while Erha, Egina and Agbami maintained relatively stable output levels.

The NUPRC further highlighted growing contributions from newer and indigenous-operated assets such as Utapate and Cawthorne, which continue to support incremental gains in national production.

Industry analysts said the divergence between peak daily output and average monthly production highlights the structural challenges in Nigeria’s upstream oil sector. They argued that without addressing insecurity around oil infrastructure, pipeline disruptions and delayed investment, sustaining higher production levels will remain difficult.

Despite ongoing reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act and intensified surveillance efforts by the government, Nigeria’s output trajectory still falls short of the Federal Government’s medium-term target of 2 million bpd, exposing a widening gap between policy ambition and operational reality.