Population growth, economic expansion, improved living standards, and nations’ quest for cleaner energies, will drive up natural gas consumption annually by 1.1 percent from about 4,000 billion cubic meters (bcm) last year to around 5,500 bcm by 2050 said Hussein Moghaddam, senior energy forecast analyst, GECF.
This was revealed during a workshop organised by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) on Monday showcasing the breadth of its multi-energy, muti-sectors forecasting model, the Global Gas Model.
The event in Cairo came a day prior to the 24th GECF Ministerial Meeting and was attended by several energy ministers and senior officials from its member countries.
In his opening remarks, Mohamed Hamel, secretary general GECF, said, “The main takeaway from today is that natural gas is set to play a pivotal role as an enabler of the energy transition.”
GECF shares insights from its Global Gas Model and Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario in the Cairo workshop.
Welcoming the dignitaries and participants to the event, Tarek El Molla, minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Arab Republic of Egypt, said: “Today’s workshop tackles one of the most critical topics addressed worldwide: the role of natural gas as a reliable energy source and how it supports a just energy transition process.”
Among the ministers in attendance were Gabriel Lima, minister of mines and hydrocarbons, Republic of Equatorial Guinea, Stuart Young, minister of energy and energy industries, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, and Carlos Zacarias, minister of mineral resources and energy, Republic of Mozambique.
In addition, heads of delegation to the 24th GECF Ministerial Meeting from Bolivia, Mauritania, and Venezuela were also present on the occasion.
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Presenting the initial results of the Energy Sustainability Scenario (ESS), Moghaddam said, “In the ESS, we seek a balance between the three pillars of energy security, affordability, and sustainability to demonstrate that natural gas is a key lever to realising the UN Sustainable Development Goals.”
Meanwhile, the numbers generated under the Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario (AETS) present another promising picture for natural gas. The Scenario sees natural gas playing an instrumental in power generation by backing up renewables and producing energy carriers such as hydrogen.
“This power generation capacity will also be pronounced in increased solar and wind generation by providing flexibility and backup,” said Mustafa Amer, research assistant, GECF.
According to him, the GECF’s AETS also features carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) as an important decarbonisation pillar that reduces emissions by 4.8 (billion tonnes of carbon dioxide) GtCO2 by 2050.
“Together, natural gas and renewables may make up 57 percent of the world’s energy mix, boasting the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050, when compared to 2020 levels,” Amer said.
