Global power systems will be 70 percent reliant on variable renewable energy sources (VRES) by 2050, according to a statement by DNV, an international consultancy company.
The Norway-based consultancy further said in the same year, coal and gas will decline to 4 percent and 8 percent respectively of the power mix.
In addition, coal and gas will be largely confined to provide flexibility and backup in a power system.
According to the statement, solar photovoltaics (PV) will grow 22-fold. The growth of solar PV has been remarkable: 1 gigawatt (GW) per year was installed for the first time in 2004, 10 GW was added in 2010, and 100 GW in 2019.
Furthermore, in 2021, 150 GW was added despite supply-chain disruptions due to COVID-19.
“From 2030 onwards, we expect annual additions of between 300 and 500 GW,” the consultancy firm said.
“By mid-century, total installed capacity will be 9.5 terawatts (TW) for solar. The resulting 14.5 TW of solar capacity is 24 times greater than in 2020.”
DNV further said from today to 2050, solar capacity increases 22-fold. Driving this are both plunging costs and a growing realization that VRES offers the cheapest and quickest route to both decarbonization and energy security.
In addition, the global weighted average Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE) for solar PV is currently around $50/ megawatts hour (MWh) for solar and $120/MWh for solar+storage.
This reduces to around $30/MWh by mid-century for solar PV, with individual projects well below $20/MWh, the consultancy company said.
“Solar+storage cost is currently more than double that of solar PV without storage. Falling battery prices will narrow this gap to around 50 percent by mid-century,” it said.
“Within a decade, about one-fifth of all PV will be installed with dedicated storage, and by mid-century this rises to half. By mid-century, total installed capacity will be 5 TW for solar + storage.”
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The Norway-based consultancy further said it expects the average LCOE of solar PV to fall by at least 40 percent by 2050, with individual projects falling by as much as 60 percent relative to today’s average cost.
Furthermore, with its high cost-learning rates (26 percent at module level per doubling of capacity, declining to 17 percent in 2050), solar PV will be the cheapest source of new electricity globally by a considerable margin, despite its lower capacity factors relative to other VRES sources.
By 2050, 23 PWh/yr of solar electricity will be generated worldwide, the statement said.
DNV further said from today to 2050, wind capacity will grow 9-fold, onshore wind 7-fold, and offshore wind 56-fold. LCOE for fixed and floating offshore wind reduces 39 percent and 84 percent, respectively, in our forecast period.
“Even relatively mature onshore wind sees cost reductions of 52 percent. These developments fuel the rise of on-grid wind from 1,600 TWh/yr in 2020 to 19,000 TWh/yr in 2050,” it said.
“By 2050, wind will provide almost 50 percent of on-grid electricity in Europe, and 40 percent in North America and Latin America.”
In addition, grid electricity from wind increases from 1.6 PWh/yr in 2020 to 19 PWh/yr in 2050, with Greater China, Europe and North America leading in output, and OECD and Latin America growing sharply from 2030.
However, Europe and OECD Pacific will have the highest shares of offshore wind.
DNV said, “New turbine types and bigger turbines, blades, and towers will raise capacity factors for onshore wind from 26 percent now to 34 percent, and from 38 percent to 43 percent for offshore wind by 2050.
“This, together with cheaper turbines, are the main drivers of cost reductions of 52 percent for onshore wind over the period 2020 to 2050, with fixed and floating offshore costs dropping 39 percent and 84 percent, respectively.”
According to the statement, of the 6 TW of installed capacity in 2050, 1.8 TW will be fixed and 289 GW floating offshore.
“Total grid investments have averaged $450 billion per year in the past decade,” the consultancy firm said.
“The expansion of renewable power leads to a steady increase in grid investments, reaching levels of $500 billion per year in the 2030s, and growing up to $1.1trillion per year by 2050.”
DNV further said that measured by circuit kilometres, transmission and distribution lines will almost triple during our forecast period.
