Renewables and nuclear energy are set to dominate the growth of global electricity supply over the next three years, significantly reducing carbon emissions in the power sector, says a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, renewables and nuclear energy will meet an average additional demand of more than 90 percent.
It also said the substantial growth of renewables will need to be accompanied by accelerated investments in grids and flexibility for their successful integration into the power systems.
“The increase in nuclear output results from an expected recovery in French nuclear generation as more plants complete their scheduled maintenance and from new plants starting operations, largely in Asia,” the report said.
According to IEA, after global electricity demand slowed slightly last year to two percent amid the turmoil of the global energy crisis and exceptional weather conditions in some regions, the growth is expected to accelerate to an average of three percent over the next three years.
“Emerging and developing economies in Asia are the driving forces behind this faster pace, which is a step up from average growth of 2.4 percent during the years before the pandemic,” the report said.
“More than 70 percent of the increase in global electricity demand over the next three years is expected to come from China, India and Southeast Asia, although considerable uncertainties remain over trends in China as its economy emerges from strict Covid restrictions.”
At the same time, advanced economies are seeking to expand electricity used to displace fossil fuels in sectors such as transport, heating and industry, the international energy agency said.
“The world’s growing demand for electricity is set to accelerate, adding more than double Japan’s current electricity consumption over the next three years,” said Fatih Birol, executive director, IEA.
“The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing quickly enough to meet almost all this additional appetite, suggesting we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions.”
Birol also said that governments now need to enable low-emissions sources to grow even faster and drive down emissions so that the world can ensure secure electricity supplies while reaching climate goals.
According to IEA, The strong growth of renewables means their share of the global power generation mix is forecast to rise from 29 percent in 2022 to 35 percent in 2025, with the shares of coal- and gas-fired generation falling.
As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation will continue to decrease in the coming years.
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“Electricity demand and supply worldwide are becoming increasingly weather dependent, with extreme conditions, a recurring theme in 2022,” IEA said.
“In addition to the drought in Europe, there were heatwaves in India, resulting in the country’s highest ever peak in power demand.”
Similarly, central and eastern regions of China were hit by heatwaves and drought, which caused demand for air conditioning to surge amid reduced hydropower generation in Sichuan province., the report said. The United States also saw severe winter storms in December, triggering massive power outages.
“These highlight the need for faster decarbonisation and accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies,” IEA says.
“At the same time, as the clean energy transition gathers pace, the impact of weather events on electricity demand will intensify due to the increased electrification of heating, while the share of weather-dependent renewables will continue to grow in the generation mix.”
IEA added that in such a world, increasing the flexibility of power systems while ensuring the security of supply and resilience of networks will be crucial.
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