Sudan’s revolution, like many others before it, seems to have been brutally halted by a rapacious military industrial complex that will not allow democracy to take root or thrive.
After the overthrow of long-term dictator, Omar al-Bashir, the military stepped in, and by using brute force, wide-scale murder, diplomacy and deception, cajoled civilian leaders to agree to a three year transitional government beginning from September 1 to 2022 when elections will be conducted.
Although the formal agreement says it is a joint civilian and military council, in reality, the military remains firmly in charge. Like a leader of the revolution lamented, “We still have not achieved what we are fighting for… Al-Bashir is not there, but the regime itself is still there. Objective one has not been achieved. Objective two has not been achieved, which is a civilian government. It’s like having a diversion in the middle of your journey.”
It is not surprising that Sudan’s military was able to arrest and reverse the country’s revolution. Its ability to suffocate the country’s democratic movement is taken from the playbook of intransigent militaries that have ensured and overcome revolutions the world over. But even in Africa, it has many examples to learn from.
Since 2010, Africa has witness a spate of social uprising or revolutions as some would call them. But in virtually all the places where those revolutions have taken place, bar Tunisia, the revolutions have come full circle with the military’s thwarting the revolution and stepping in to reassert control. Egypt is a classic example.
Haven successfully overthrown long-term ruler, Hosni Mubarak and elected a civilian ruler, Muhammed Morsi. Egyptians thought they had successfully caged the military-industrial complex that had ruled the country from inception. Although Morsi took care to retire the top echelon of the military that may threaten his rule and the country’s democracy, and promoted a relatively junior officer, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to army chief, it did not take long for the military industrial complex to rear its head again.
At the earliest opportunity, El-Sisi threw Morsi out and re-established control of the military. This time, the military made sure it gave no room for dissent and dealt with dissenters summarily. Morsi’s Moslem Brotherhood that had existed in operated on the fringes of Egyptian society from time has been outlawed, its leaders and key members killed or imprisoned. Sadly, Morsi died in detention some months back. Ditto with Algeria.
The Sudanese protesters hoped theirs may not go the way of Egypt or Algeria, but it seems the military is having its way.
Nigeria used to have such military industrial complex where the military sees itself as guardians of the nation not just in security terms, but in the Platonic sense of being entitled to rule. Nigeria owes a debt of gratitude to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military dictator himself, for retiring hundreds of serving but politically exposed military personnel. In one stroke of the pen he exorcised that complex out of the Nigerian military that has somewhat curbed the penchant for coup d’état. It has allowed Nigeria to enjoy over 20 years of uninterrupted democracy.
Perhaps, the reason why revolutions in Africa are easily reversed is because they are not driven by any ideology other than discontent with the government in power. Revolutions that succeed are inevitably driven by a strong ideology that binds revolutionaries together and make them forge ahead even in the face of mortal danger, until their goals are achieved.
For now, after the deaths of hundreds or even thousands in the hands of killer soldiers, Sudan is back to where it started.
