Nigeria’s agricultural crisis: A threat to economic stability

For decades, Nigeria has struggled with an over-reliance on crude oil, a resource that has been both its economic lifeline and Achilles heel. Despite repeated promises to diversify the economy, oil remains the dominant revenue source, leaving Nigeria vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Agriculture, once the backbone of the economy, continues to hold untapped potential, but insecurity has stifled efforts to revive the sector. The result is an economic fragility that has exacerbated inflation, food insecurity, and rural poverty, as the country grapples with how to overcome these barriers.

 “These figures represent more than a tragedy for individual farmers; they reflect a broader systemic failure that jeopardises Nigeria’s food security and its ambitions for economic diversification.”

The challenges are stark. Violent clashes between herdsmen and farmers, especially in the country’s agricultural heartlands like Benue and Nasarawa, have led to mass displacement, destroyed farmlands, and the deaths of over 1,356 farmers between 2020 and 2024, according to SBM Intelligence. These figures represent more than a tragedy for individual farmers; they reflect a broader systemic failure that jeopardises Nigeria’s food security and its ambitions for economic diversification.

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The issue of rural insecurity is compounded by the rise of kidnapping-for-ransom gangs, particularly in northern regions where agriculture is the primary economic activity. Farmers have become easy targets for kidnappers, and the ransoms extracted have sapped already fragile communities. Over N139 million was reportedly paid in farm levies between 2020 and 2023 just to allow planting and harvesting to continue. As insecurity continues to cripple agricultural productivity, inflation has soared, reaching 37.52 percent in August 2024, despite recent easing.

This is not just a Nigerian problem. Across the globe, nations are grappling with food security challenges in the wake of geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and disrupted supply chains. Yet, while other countries have managed to protect their agricultural sectors through technological innovation and robust policy frameworks, Nigeria remains hamstrung by leadership inertia. The failure to address rural insecurity with the urgency it demands risks plunging the country into deeper economic disarray.

Agriculture was once Nigeria’s economic engine, accounting for a large share of its exports and employment before the oil boom of the 1970s. The sector still holds enormous potential: Nigeria boasts vast arable land, a favourable climate, and a young, growing population that could drive increased food production and agricultural exports. Yet, despite policies like the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP) and the Green Alternative, insecurity continues to undermine progress. Non-oil exports, including agricultural products, fell to just 9.65 percent of total exports in the first half of 2024, compared to 15.30 percent in 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

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These statistics are a reminder of the fragility of Nigeria’s economic diversification strategy. Without addressing the security threats in its rural areas, Nigeria will struggle to meet its domestic food demand, let alone achieve its broader goals of reducing dependence on oil. Beyond the immediate economic costs, the social ramifications of rural displacement, declining agricultural productivity, and growing unemployment are profound.

Countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia offer instructive examples for Nigeria. Both nations have successfully embarked on diversification programs, reducing their reliance on oil by bolstering agriculture, tourism, and technology. In Indonesia, government support for agricultural innovation and rural development has been key to its diversification efforts. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy similarly emphasises food security through investment in agricultural technology and modernised farming techniques.

Nigeria must take bold steps if it hopes to replicate these successes. This begins with addressing insecurity in rural areas through a combination of increased security personnel, advanced surveillance technologies, and policies aimed at resolving the root causes of the herder-farmer conflicts. Equally important is the development of clear land-use policies that balance the needs of farmers and pastoralists, reducing the risk of violent clashes.

While improving security is paramount, Nigeria’s agricultural revival also requires broader reforms. Investment in agricultural infrastructure, from irrigation systems to transportation networks, would enhance productivity and market access for rural farmers. Additionally, technology-driven solutions—such as the use of drones for farm surveillance or early warning systems for herdsmen incursions—could help mitigate the risks faced by farmers. Incentivizing large-scale farming in more secure areas could also boost agricultural output in the short term, while longer-term investments focus on modernising agricultural techniques across the country.

Finally, Nigeria’s leaders must engage in meaningful dialogue with all stakeholders, from farmers and herdsmen to private sector actors and international partners. Agricultural success stories from other countries have often involved robust public-private partnerships, and Nigeria should be no exception. By encouraging investment from local and foreign firms in agribusiness, the government can lay the foundation for a more sustainable and diversified economy.

The road to agricultural revival is not an easy one, but it is crucial for Nigeria’s economic stability. Unless urgent action is taken to address the security challenges that plague rural areas, the dream of diversification will remain elusive. Nigeria’s leaders must now decide: will they continue to pay lip service to reform, or will they take the necessary steps to unlock the full potential of the agricultural sector? The future of the nation’s economy may depend on their answer.