Nigeria’s ₦54.99 trillion budget: Bold promise or gamble?

Nigeria’s proposed ₦54.99 trillion budget for 2025 is the largest in the country’s history, an expansion of nearly 57 percent from the previous year. President Bola Tinubu has branded it the “Budget of Restoration,” promising economic revival, infrastructural transformation, and much-needed relief for struggling Nigerians. On paper, it is ambitious. In practice, it revives old concerns. Will this budget serve as a lifeline for the people, or will it become another grand declaration that fails to translate into real change?

The administration has outlined a sweeping vision. Security remains a top priority, with a striking ₦6.11 trillion allocation—an 88 percent increase from last year. Infrastructure, particularly roads and bridges, is set to receive ₦5.99 trillion, nearly quadruple the previous allocation. Other critical sectors such as healthcare, education, and agriculture also see significant budgetary increases.

At first glance, this suggests a government intent on addressing long-standing issues. However, the challenge is not merely about spending more; it is about ensuring that these funds reach their intended targets. Nigeria has a history of grand budgets that fail in execution, lost in the maze of inefficiency, bureaucratic bottlenecks, and corruption. Without structural reforms in public financial management, there is little assurance that this budget will yield different results.

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Beyond the record-breaking figures, a fundamental problem looms large: debt. Of the total ₦54.99 trillion budget, ₦16.3 trillion is earmarked for debt servicing—a staggering one-third of total expenditure. This is more than what is being allocated to education, healthcare, and infrastructure combined.

 “Inflation remains the biggest leak in Nigeria’s economic bucket, and without comprehensive policies to stabilise prices, wage adjustments will offer little real benefit.”

To put it in perspective, Nigeria operates like a household that spends half its income repaying loans, leaving little for basic needs. The government projects that revenues will more than double to ₦36.35 trillion, but history offers little confidence in these expectations. If revenue targets are missed—as they often are—the country may find itself borrowing even more, perpetuating a cycle of fiscal vulnerability.

While citizens grapple with rising costs, Nigeria’s leadership appears insulated from shared sacrifice. The budget allocates ₦344.85 billion to the National Assembly—nearly double last year’s amount. Additionally, the State House budget includes over ₦7 billion for travel and transport, alongside significant allocations for entertainment and media expenses.

At the same time, social welfare programs, which could provide relief to the most vulnerable, see only modest increases. This disparity raises troubling questions about the government’s priorities. If fiscal prudence is expected from ordinary Nigerians, why should public officials operate under different rules?

The proposed ₦70,000 minimum wage is a much-needed adjustment, but its effectiveness hinges on Nigeria’s ability to curb inflation. Without addressing rising prices, the real value of wage increases will erode rapidly. Inflation remains the biggest leak in Nigeria’s economic bucket, and without comprehensive policies to stabilise prices, wage adjustments will offer little real benefit.

Infrastructure development is a central theme in the budget, with major projects such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway positioned as economic catalysts. If executed efficiently, such projects could enhance trade, generate employment, and spur economic growth.

However, Nigerians have seen these promises before. The Abuja Light Rail, championed under the previous administration, remains largely underutilised despite significant investment. Without strict oversight, infrastructure projects risk becoming costly, unfinished ventures rather than engines of progress.

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The 2025 budget has the potential to be a turning point for Nigeria, but its success depends on more than just ambitious figures. It requires fiscal discipline, transparency, and a government that prioritises long-term development over short-term political gains.

Nigerians need tangible results: affordable food, safer communities, accessible healthcare, and jobs that provide a living wage. If this budget fails to deliver, it will represent yet another missed opportunity—one that the country cannot afford. Tinubu’s administration has made bold promises; now, it must prove that this budget is more than just another document of misplaced hopes.