The hazy atmosphere over the proposed conduct by May 2022 of a national population census is dispiriting. With several postponements in the past, cancelling this year’s census would send wrong signals not only to Nigerians but to the international community, especially when nothing is being said about it in recent time.
Although the chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Nasir Isa Kwarra, has consistently assured the nation that NPC would be ready in May 2022 to conduct what he described as “the first digital population census in Nigeria.” However, there is no concrete arrangement to show that the commission is ready in months to the scheduled date. Even the much awaited presidential proclamation is yet to be made.
We call on the commission and the Federal Government to ensure that the census holds as scheduled, the purpose for which the sum of N177.33 billion was provided in the 2022 budget.
To avoid past mistakes and ensure that this year’s population census is accurate and acceptable, the commission must adopt the modern digital methods of head counting. Geographic Information Techniques such as remote sensing (high resolution satellite imaginary and aerial photographs), Geographical Positioning System – GPS), digital cartography and Geographic Information System (GIS), should also be used to facilitate the production of all base maps needed for successful conduct of the census. These features give room for geo referencing the point of interviews using GPS.
For now, if Nigeria must get it right and plan with facts, the commission must strive to conduct credible and widely acceptable census. This is one way the country can enjoy the respect of the international community
Another potential advantage of electronic instrument will be the ability to include pictures, audio or video links along with texts. Accurate, comprehensive, geographically-referenced, mutually exclusive and non-overlapping enumeration area maps, supervisory area maps and locality maps covering every nook and cranny of the country must be made readily available to enumerators to access locations.
Indeed, the importance of accurate population census as the basic tool for good development planning in a country cannot be over emphasized because it is a sine qua non for meaningful development in the country.
This is so, because development which involves optimum utilization of the nation’s human and natural resources to improve the conditions of living cannot take place without proper planning.
With a current population exceeding 180 million, Nigeria is the seventh largest country in the world and the most populous in Africa. Despite the introduction of policies and programmes over the last 50 years to address Nigeria’s rapid population growth and the challenges it poses for development, the country is projected to become the third-largest nation in the world by mid-century, according to 2015 report by the United Nations Population Division.
Since 1966, attempts at determining the population of Nigeria has been a very contentious issue, leaving it to mere guess work. Each exercise has been marred by religious and ethnic interests as each group attempted to manipulate census figures to its selfish advantage.
Put differently, no issue has generated much controversy, intense debate and ethnic antagonism than that of national census figures. This no doubt has cost the nation a great deal.
Consequently, Nigerians have developed systemic apathy towards census and have the belief that no census can succeed in Nigeria, whether conducted by a civilian or military government. But this is a wrong notion because if other countries are getting it right, we must get it right too.
The last time Nigeria conducted population census was in 2006 and the result of that census put the population of the country at 140.43 million persons comprising 71.3 million male and 69.0 million female.
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According to the census, Kano had the highest population figure with 9.4 million, followed by Lagos with 9.1 million. Other states that made up the top 10 states were; Kaduna (6.1 million), Katsina (5.8 million), Oyo (5.5 million), Rivers (5.1 million), Bauchi (4.6 million), Jigawa (4.3 million), Benue (4.2 million) and Anambra (4.1 million).
Before the 2006 census, the 1991 census put Nigeria’s population at 89 million. In the 16-year period between 1991 and 2006, the country’s population grew by 57.3 percent.
However, in the almost 15 years since the last census, Nigeria has made plans based on population projections by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which had projected that the country’s population would have grown up to 193 million persons in 2016, a 37.8 percent increase over a ten-year period.
Modern population census began in 1790 in the new United States of America and has continued decennially. During the twentieth century most countries have conducted censuses every 10 years, with increased variety of socioeconomic data, and with improved quality.
But in Nigeria, it has become a difficult and sensitive issue due to its implications for shaping geopolitical, state and ethnic relations and equity of power. It is the attitude of the people, particularly the political elite, towards the population question, in terms of its absolute size, as it affects the states and the sub-regions that constitute the background to the population census which the country has been associated with.
After this year’s head count, future population census exercises and timing intervals must be well thought-out. This will ensure that an interval of 10 years is maintained for accuracy of data, in line with globally accepted standards.
For now, if Nigeria must get it right and plan with facts, the commission must strive to conduct credible and widely acceptable census. This is one way the country can enjoy the respect of the international community. For this to happen, early planning, proper organization and deployment of modern and improved technologies for data collection must be adopted by the National Population Commission.
As things stand, it is important to reiterate that an accurate census is a pre-requisite to national development. Therefore the relevant government agencies must not drop the ball on this sensitive and important national issue.
