Building the economy of two Nigerians

Nigeria is growing in the wrong direction. The economy may be posting pockets of expansion in high-performing sectors, but the average Nigerian is not feeling it because the growth is not happening. The latest warning from the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) captures this dangerous contradiction: Nigeria’s fastest-growing sectors employ only 1.5 percent of the workforce, even as they contribute significantly to GDP.

It is a reality that should unsettle every policymaker. A country cannot build stability on statistics alone. When growth becomes a ‘numbers game’ without jobs, it breeds anger, insecurity, migration pressure and poverty. That is exactly where Nigeria is headed if urgent structural reforms are not implemented, especially at the state level, where the real economy lives.

NESG’s Wilson Erumebor explained the crisis clearly: sectors driving GDP growth – finance and insurance, ICT, electricity and gas supply, water supply and waste management, and arts and entertainment – are increasingly disconnected from mass employment outcomes. This means Nigeria is building a modern economy on paper, while its people remain stuck in survival. In simple terms, Nigeria is earning growth in elite sectors while employing citizens in low-productivity sectors.

 “This structural imbalance is why millions work hard yet remain poor. It is also why joblessness can rise even when GDP improves. Growth without jobs is not progress but economic theatre.”

Nigeria today runs two economies side by side. The first is the ‘fast Nigeria’ – high-productivity sectors like ICT and finance, producing value, driving GDP and attracting investors. But these sectors are built on efficiency, automation and lean talent pools. They do not hire in large numbers because their business models do not require mass labour.

The second is the ‘slow Nigeria’: agriculture and trade, absorbing millions of workers but generating low productivity, low incomes and minimal upward mobility. These are the sectors where Nigerians are employed, but not prospering. They are crowded, informal, under-capitalised and poorly supported by infrastructure.

This structural imbalance is why millions work hard yet remain poor. It is also why joblessness can rise even when GDP improves. Growth without jobs is not progress but economic theatre.

NESG estimates Nigeria must create 27 million jobs by 2030, roughly 4.5 million jobs yearly, to meet demographic pressures. This is not aspirational but survival math. If the country fails, unemployment and underemployment will worsen, and insecurity will expand its recruitment base.

Nigeria’s fastest sectors are not employing because the ecosystem that converts growth into jobs is weak.

First, the private sector is too small. In many states, the government remains the biggest employer, not because the government is productive, but because businesses cannot thrive amid poor electricity supply, weak logistics, multiple taxation, insecurity and unstable regulation.

Second, there is a skills mismatch, as employers complain they cannot find workers with the technical competence needed, while graduates complain there are no jobs. Both can be true. Nigeria’s education system is failing at the foundation level; children struggling to read, write or count early enough will later struggle to compete in a modern labour market.

Third, the economy rewards importing instead of producing. Many firms find it easier to trade finished goods than to manufacture locally. This blocks job creation because the biggest employers in any economy are not fintech apps but factories, construction sites, farms with modern value chains, and service businesses that scale.

If Nigeria wants its fastest sectors to hire, the government must stop begging investors and start building the conditions that force expansion into job-creating value chains.

ICT may not hire like manufacturing, but it can still absorb millions if structured properly. States should set up outsourcing hubs and partner with private firms to train youths in customer support, software testing, cloud operations, cybersecurity, data labelling, animation and content production. With the right broadband and power support, Nigeria can become Africa’s outsourcing workshop.

The government should also adopt digital public works, short-term paid digital tasks for youths. That is digitising records, mapping communities, data collection for agriculture, e-health support, and civic tech deployments, which builds experience while injecting income.

Finance grows, but employment remains thin because services concentrate in urban centres and high-income clients. Regulators and states can push for job creation by incentivising branchless banking, agency networks and micro-insurance expansion. Every agent network is employment, as every insurance field structure creates jobs.

The sector can also be pushed to fund job creation directly by credit guarantees for MSMEs, lower-cost financing for manufacturers, and state-backed risk-sharing schemes that reduce default fears.

Nigeria’s power sector has employment potential in metering, mini-grid deployment, maintenance, energy audits, solar installation and local assembly. States should provide land, security and permits for mini-grid operators; support local component production; and enforce transparent energy regulation at the subnational level. Power reforms are not just about light but also about enabling businesses to hire.

The creative economy is expanding, but it often produces a few stars and many hustlers. States should build creative districts with studios, post-production hubs, equipment leasing support, intellectual property desks, and grants tied to hiring apprentices. Nollywood and music can become structured employers if the ecosystem is formalised.

The state level is where Nigeria can win the jobs battle because states control land, permits, local infrastructure, markets and skills pipelines. Yet many governors spend more time commissioning projects than building production ecosystems.

NESG’s Nigeria Works Framework is a timely blueprint because it shifts the focus from job numbers to job quality and productivity. But frameworks alone will not save Nigeria. Only political discipline and execution will.

Nigeria’s fastest-growing sectors are not the enemy. The problem is that the government celebrates their GDP contribution while neglecting the sectors that create jobs at scale – manufacturing, construction, modern agriculture, logistics and services. To grow is not enough. Nigeria must grow in a way that employs people. Anything else is simply building a richer economy for fewer people and leaving the majority to fight over scraps.