President Bola Tinubu’s inaugural budget for 2024, a hefty N28.77 trillion, was boldly titled the “Budget of Renewed Hope.” Yet, as the year concludes, the optimism promised has proven to be an illusion. Millions of Nigerians are experiencing economic despair, and Tinubu’s budget has made matters worse rather than better. The harsh facts—economic mismanagement, increased kidnappings, and widespread hunger—are a clear indication that his administration has failed to lead effectively.
The statistics paint a grim picture. Over 64 percent of Nigerians, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), went hungry in 2024, skipping meals and enduring nights without food. The year also witnessed tragic stampedes for meager palliatives, claiming nearly 100 lives—a poignant symbol of the desperation that now defines daily life. Compounding this misery, Nigerians paid N2.3 trillion in ransom to kidnappers, with 65 percent of households affected by abductions. These grim figures starkly contrast with the lofty rhetoric of “renewed hope.”
Looking ahead, Tinubu has proposed an even more ambitious N47.9 trillion budget for 2025, labelled the “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity.” But for a nation battered by economic and social turmoil, the question is unavoidable: will this budget translate into tangible relief for ordinary Nigerians, or is it yet another mirage?
Nigeria’s fiscal history suggests the latter. Government budgets, year after year, have become exercises in futility for the majority. Unlike in advanced economies—where budgets prioritise welfare, healthcare, and education—Nigeria’s allocations disproportionately favour capital expenditure, recurrent spending, and debt servicing. These areas, often riddled with corruption and inefficiency, enrich the political elite but deliver little benefit to the masses.
The government of Tinubu seems to function in a vacuum, disconnected from the reality of its constituents. In his recent budget speech, the president celebrated what he described as “remarkable milestones,” citing a 3.46 percent GDP growth rate and foreign reserves of nearly $42 billion as evidence of economic recovery. But these claims, stripped of their self-congratulatory tone, reveal a troubling lack of ambition. GDP growth under previous administrations averaged 8 percent, and foreign reserves under leaders like Umaru Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan consistently surpassed $42 billion. Tinubu’s celebration of these underwhelming metrics is a disservice to Nigerians enduring one of the most challenging economic periods in the country’s history.
The data speaks volumes about Tinubu’s performance relative to his predecessors. Inflation, which remained below 18 percent under Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, and Jonathan, has surged to 34.6 percent under Tinubu. The naira’s exchange rate has plummeted to approximately N1,700 to the dollar, a historic low. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s debt has ballooned to N134.3 trillion, a staggering figure that dwarfs the debts accumulated by all previous administrations combined.
Despite these failings, Tinubu remains unrepentantly self-congratulatory. In a recent media interview, he rated his performance as “excellent,” declaring his right to set and grade his own achievements. Such hubris underscores a worrying detachment from the lived realities of his citizens. Tinubu’s assertion that Nigerians can now travel without fear is particularly jarring, given that ransom payments reached unprecedented levels under his watch.
The proposed 2025 budget continues this pattern of misaligned priorities. With N15.81 trillion allocated to debt servicing—more than the combined allocations for defence, health, and education—the government’s spending priorities remain skewed. Moreover, the budget relies on overly optimistic assumptions about oil production, exchange rates, and investment inflows, ignoring the broader global and domestic risks that could undermine these projections.
Ultimately, the central question remains: Who will truly benefit from this budget? If history serves as any guide, the answer is unlikely to be ordinary Nigerians. Tinubu’s administration has yet to demonstrate the capacity or willingness to deliver on the fundamental tenets of good governance—improving living standards, ensuring security, and fostering inclusive economic growth. Despite bold promises, the reality on the ground reflects a widening gap between policy rhetoric and tangible impact on citizens’ lives.
As 2025 approaches, Nigerians are left grappling with cautious hope tempered by skepticism. Will the administration’s pledges of restoration and prosperity finally translate into meaningful action? Or will they become yet another addition to the growing catalogue of unmet commitments and unfulfilled ambitions that have marked the Tinubu presidency?
For a nation in dire need of transformative leadership, the stakes could not be higher. The pressing challenges of inflation, unemployment, and insecurity demand bold, visionary governance rooted in accountability and inclusivity. Without this, Nigeria risks further deepening its socioeconomic divides, eroding public trust, and squandering opportunities for progress.
Ultimately, the burden of proof lies squarely with the government. Nigerians deserve leadership that prioritises their collective well-being over political expediency. As the clock ticks toward 2025, the choices made—or avoided—by this administration will not only shape its legacy but also determine the trajectory of a nation yearning for renewal. Only time will tell if Tinubu’s government will rise to this moment or falter under the weight of its unfulfilled promises.
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