Doctors at the frontline of the fight against the deadly coronavirus in Lagos say the rate of community spread of the virus in Africa’s largest city has risen to about 45 percent of the total number of cases.
“At the beginning we were dealing with a ratio of 80:20, 80 being those with a travel history while only 20 percent of the cases fell into the category of community spread. Today, that number has gone up to 45 percent,” said one doctor who spoke to our reporter but did not want to be identified.
“One thing positive is, most of the cases doctors are seeing are people who are a lot less ill, they are being taken in not because they are ill but so they can be isolated to curb the spread of the virus,” the doctor said.
Authorities in Lagos have recently embarked on house-to-house testing of residents and this is primarily responsible for the spike to 30 in the number of confirmed cases reported on a single day on Tuesday.
Nigeria has reported 373 positive cases of coronavirus as at 4:00pm on Wednesday, with 99 recoveries and 11 deaths recorded.
Another doctor who spoke with BusinessDay said the spike as well as the shift in the social classification of the cases being encountered currently may mean that the virus is spreading faster.
“Initially, the people who were coming in with the virus were predominantly people with travel history, people in the upper social class. Today, that is changing. We are now seeing people without travel history and irrespective of social class, they are now presenting with the symptoms,” he said.
The physician said some of these people are those “who have not been flagged, that is, they have not travelled recently, and have no connection with anyone who has travelled. In a way, people you cannot really account for.”
This could mean “we are really about to have a real outbreak”, the doctor said. It could be another one month or so before signs that the curve is flattening, he explained.
Compared to peers, Nigeria has so far tested an insignificant proportion of its people and there could yet be a huge underestimation of the number of cases in the country.
The two doctors agreed that the lockdown is helping Nigeria slow the rate of spread of the virus and they welcomed the help that has come from the private sector.
“The outbreak has truly exposed Nigeria’s health system for what it is and what I have seen is the stark unpreparedness of our health system – the people, the infrastructure and process – to handle an emergency like this one,” one of the doctors said.
Nigeria is in its third week of lockdown and while the government is expected to begin to relax the restriction in 12 days, the health workers who spoke to our reporters said care must be taken to ensure that the gains already secured are maintained.
They suggested a gradual relaxation that may see places of worship, cinemas as well as parties, large conferences and other similar large gatherings still being prohibited.
