Here are major trends in Nigeria’s unemployment

Analysts at Data Services and Resources (ADSR) Limited, a research company in Nigeria, have highlighted three major trends in the Nigerian unemployment rate in 2023 for businesses and policymakers to consider their implications.

This was revealed in a recent report titled, ‘Key highlights of the Nigerian unemployment rate and other labour force statistics,’ presented by Afolabi Olowookere, managing director of ADSR.

The report explores the labour force statistics from 2016 to 2023, unemployment, underemployment, and employment rates from 2017 to 2023 including their sectors.

On September 24, 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 26.75 percent to 27.25 percent. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) also released two reports: the Nigeria Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2023 and The Nigerian Labour Force Statistics Report Q1’2024.

“These reports contain rich information on Nigerian employment and other labour force statistics with business and policy planning implications,” Olowookere said.

Read also: The unemployment crisis in Nigeria

NBS highlighted that Nigeria had a labour force of 88.94 million persons, of which 84.15 million were employed, giving an unemployment rate of 5.39 percent.

The unemployment rate was highest in Abia State (18.7 percent) and lowest in Nasarawa (0.5 percent) while Employees entitled to either pension or health insurance schemes were 26.3 percent in Nigeria.

However, in Q1 2024, an unemployment rate of 5.3 percent and an underemployment rate of 10.6% were recorded.

“Only 7.3 percent of Nigerian workers were in the formal sector while 14.5 percent of Youths were not in education, employment or training,” NBS report says.

Total Labour Force Statistics

Nigeria’s total labour force rose to 90.47 million persons in 2018 but fell to 69.68 million at the peak of COVID-19 in 2020. In 2023, labour force stood at 88.94 million persons out of a total working-age population of 116.60 million.

Out of the total labour force of 88.94 million in 2023, 27 percent had no formal education, which may limit job opportunities and skills development.

Only 26 percent possessed primary education and 33 percent had secondary education which is the largest, suggesting that it is a common level of attainment while 13 percent had post-secondary qualifications, only 1 percent had postgraduate qualifications.

About 42.3 percent of the Nigerian labour force were residents in rural areas while 57.7 percent were residents in the urban areas.

Read also: Nigeria’s unemployment rise 5.3% in Q1 2024

Labour Force by Age

About 25.6 percent of the labour force was aged 15-24 years, 22.5 percent were aged 25-34 years. Also, 22.9 percent were in the age bracket 35-44 years and 16.4 percent between 45 and 54 years while 8.1 percent were found in the range 55-64 years, and 4.6 percent were from 65 years and above.

Unemployment Rate

Nigeria’s unemployment rate rose from 14.2 percent in 2016 to 33.3 percent in 2020, while the underemployment rate rose from 21 percent to 22.8 percent. Based on a new methodology that the NBS recently migrated to, the unemployment rate in 2024’Q1 was 5.3 percent and the Time-related underemployment rate was 10.6 percent.

The unemployment rate of 5.39 percent in 2023 implies that 84.15 million persons of the labour force of the 88.94 million population were engaged in one form of activity or another. Out of these, 92.2 percent were working in the informal sector, while only 78 percent were engaged in formal economic activities.

The unemployment rate is highest in Abia (18.7%), FCT (14.1%), Rivers (13.4%), but lowest in Nasarawa (0.5%), Sokoto (1.2%), and Benue (1.6%).

Employment by Economic Sectors

The main economic sectors of Nigerian workers were Agriculture (30.1%), Wholesale and Retail (27.5 percent), Manufacturing (12.7 percent), and Accommodation and Food Services (7.8 percent) whereby close to 80 percent of Nigerian workers are in these four main sectors.

Most Nigerians work in the private sector (74.4%), while 25.6 percent work in the public sector. The major occupations of Nigerians are Service and Sales (33.8 percent), Farming (28.1 percent), and Crafts and Related Trades (14.4 percent).

“States with high poverty rates tend to have relatively lower unemployment rates. Policymakers should pay close attention to this relationship and conduct further empirical analysis to determine the reason and implications,” ADSR says.