Consumer spending by a fast-growing middle class is as important a growth driver for Africa as mineral and resource demand, according to a new survey of global logistics executives.
In the survey, which is part of the 2016 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, industry executives rank South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana as the most promising markets in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Poor infrastructure, lack of power generation and corruption continue to pose the most risk to African economies, according to the more than 1,100 executives responding to the survey.
Despite recent growth and surging foreign investment, Sub-Saharan Africa remains a challenging frontier for many. Only 21.2 percent of logistics industry executives surveyed said their companies have operations there.
Another 12.7 percent said they are in the planning stages to enter African markets. More than 43 percent said they have no plans to set up in Africa.
“The results show a serious disconnect between the perception of the market and actual opportunities. These are some of the world’s fastest-growing economies. Africa’s requirement for logistics services and supply chain expertise is huge and growing every day. At the same time, many of the companies that need logistics to enter the market don’t know how to get started in Africa or aren’t willing to take the risk,” said Geoffrey White, CEO of Agility Africa. “The market is open for first movers who can navigate risk and nurture African talent. The opportunity is for those seeking to build long-term, sustainable businesses that bring world-class practices and adapt to local conditions.”
The Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, now in its 7th year, offers a snapshot of logistics industry sentiment and ranks the world’s 45 leading emerging markets based on their size, business conditions, infrastructure and other factors that make them attractive to logistics providers, freight forwarders, shipping lines, air cargo carriers and distributors.
The leading markets in Sub-Saharan Africa are South Africa (No. 16) and Nigeria (17). South Africa has Africa’s most advanced logistics industry and transport infrastructure, but its economy has been hobbled by chronic power shortages, slumping commodity prices, a plunging currency and labour unrest.
Nigeria climbed 10 spots in the 2016 Index, tying Egypt (No. 22) for the biggest gain by any country in the seven years since the Index was first published. Nigeria’s enormous potential has become clearer since its recent decision to update the methods by which it collects economic data.
Even so, its economy is heavily reliant on oil and has been hurt by low energy prices.
Other countries in the region fall toward the bottom of the rankings: Ethiopia (37), Tanzania (40), Kenya (43) and Uganda (45). Among countries in North Africa, Morocco ranked No. 20, trailed by Egypt (22), Algeria (30), Tunisia (36) and Libya (41).
Nigeria’s size and growth suggest it should rank near Brazil (No. 6) or Mexico (8) in the overall Index. But Nigeria is no more business friendly than Venezuela and Uganda, and its weak infrastructure, transport links and customs regime puts it with Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Tanzania in “connectivity.”
– Among countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa has the best “connectivity.” In North Africa, Morocco has the best business climate and connections.
The logistics industry is also intrigued by the possibility that Iran could emerge from its long economic isolation as the result of an agreement to curtail its nuclear program. In the survey, Iran moved up 12 spots – from No. 27 to No. 15 – among countries with potential as major logistics markets.
“It was a volatile year for emerging markets, and you see that in the Index. Eight of the top 10 emerging markets shifted places,” said Essa Al-Saleh, President and CEO of Agility Global Integrated Logistics. “Despite the turbulence, the fundamentals driving growth remain consistent – a rising middle class with spending power, progress in poverty reduction, growing populations. That’s why we are still positive on the outlook for emerging markets and see them driving global growth.”
Transport Intelligence (Ti), a leading analysis and research firm for the logistics industry, compiled the Index.
John Manners-Bell, Chief Executive Ti, said: “The world’s economy is still riven by instability, and emerging markets such as China and Brazil have not been immune. However others, such as Mexico, are in a far stronger position and will benefit from the economic growth experienced in the U.S. and Europe. More than ever, investors in emerging markets need to be discerning and the results of our Index are critical to providing clarity in a confusing and complex world.”
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