“As long as anyone can remember, Lagos has been full of such ‘unions’ and ‘associations’, labels that legitimise gangsterism [and extortion] (Lagos: Supernatural City, Tim Cocks).”
On March 11th, gunmen attacked the campaign train of Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, the Lagos state gubernatorial candidate of the Labour Party, in Epe, a key town just a short drive away from the capital city. Mr Rhodes-Vivour is fine. Kudos to the secret service agents on guard with him.
The actions of the gunmen and their sponsors stand condemned. That said, Mr Rhodes-Vivour should rest easy: they cannot kill him. The costs will be too high. After the sham presidential election on February 25th, the authorities are right to be uneasy about the gubernatorial polls on March 18th, which have acquired an importance that is perhaps unprecedented in contemporary Nigerian political history.
It is certainly the first time since 1999, when democratic rule was restored after decades of military dictatorships, that much store will be put in the election of subnational state governors. If you’ve been following the 2023 general elections thus far, you probably know why.
A cosmopolitan port city, Lagos has been held hostage by gangsters and cultists for ages. Almost every Lagosian has a horrid story to tell about terrible experiences at the hands of these ubiquitous parasites in the city
Many Nigerians, especially young ones, believe the February 25th presidential election was akin to a heist. The electoral commission told the world that the polls would be conducted in a very transparent manner, with results electronically transmitted in real time, and a winner declared from the collation of these electronically transmitted results. That did not happen.
It is almost a miracle that Nigerian youths did not subsequently pour out on the streets in protest. This was not a remote possibility. The EndSARS protests have become a cautionary tale to Nigeria’s hitherto callous political class.
In fact, international development partners have been quite relieved and surprised that there was not a resort to violence and protests in the face of what was a gross violation of the hopes and aspirations of teeming young Nigerians. Well, the political class now knows why. And they are jittery. They should be.
Had Nigerian youths hit the streets, they would have fallen right into the hands of the odious geriatric political class. I have to admit my delight at their restraint. With the presidential candidates of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) challenging the outcome of the February 25th presidential election in court, the next best move was to concentrate on the March 11th gubernatorial polls just about 2 weeks later.
I have a huge suspicion that the postponement of the governorship elections to March 18th was intended to dampen the opposition’s momentum. To my utmost pleasure, it has done the reverse. Yes, I do not trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). I hope history and posterity judge Mahmood Yakubu, INEC’s chairman, justly, and that God steers the remainder of his affairs the way he conducted the presidential election.
Why are these governorship elections important? Barring any unforeseen events, Bola Tinubu, the one-third president-elect, will be sworn in as president by end-May 2023.
Tinubu and his officials demonstrated gross contempt for the press during the campaigns and my observations suggest to me that Tinubu will seize the earliest chance he gets to be dictatorial. Thankfully, his electoral mandate is as chequered and weak as his dubious personal history. A poisoned chalice. Fitting.
Still, Tinubu will have a federal legislature under the control of the ruling party, albeit barely. To keep Tinubu in check, the opposition must win as many gubernatorial elections as possible. The presidential election tally, which to my mind and that of many Nigerians, was rigged substantially, still put about two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states in the hands of the opposition.
With better organisation and vigilance, the PDP and LP could win as much as 24-29 states in the upcoming March 18th polls. Such an outcome will ensure that Mr Tinubu is not able to amend the constitution or make major federal policy decisions without the approval of opposition state governors, especially as the Supreme Court has now affirmed that as a key requirement, even for a clearly cut task of the central bank of issuing a new currency.
Lagos is important most of all. A cosmopolitan port city, Lagos has been held hostage by gangsters and cultists for ages. Almost every Lagosian has a horrid story to tell about terrible experiences at the hands of these ubiquitous parasites in the city.
The extortionist and odious tendencies of these miscreants, who range from public bus touts to well-dressed middle-class types with dubious claims to being “sons of the soil” or “omo onile,” are stuff for the movies.
Had I not experienced their barbarism first-hand, I wouldn’t have believed it if I were told. The notion that another person expects you to give up your human and property rights because they are members of some cult is very strange indeed. As they’ve been doing so with impunity for ages, they had come to expect little resistance.
The loss in Lagos by Tinubu in the presidential election on February 25th is one of many recent instances that show people have finally had enough. Realising their complacency may cost them the state, the thugs have been on a charm offensive ahead of the polls. Suddenly, Lagos retirees were paid their overdue benefits. Just like that.
They’d been waiting for ages. Impounded vehicles by the Lagos state government were suddenly being released free of charge. Just like that.
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So the Lagos authorities were aware that these policies were causing suffering but only budged now when it became clear that they might lose the election?
The data from the February 25th presidential election confirmed what many Lagos pundits had sensed long before. Tinubu’s sway over Lagos was not so much a matter of popularity as much as it was the ambivalence of the population towards elections.
You’d think that knowing this, Tinubu and his associates will recognise the enlightened self-interest in ensuring that Lagosians are able to live such hassle-free lives that are free of incursions by these parasitic thugs that they wouldn’t mind letting him and his associates continue to win.
Well, the truth is out now. Lagos belongs to Lagosians. That is, those who live and prosper in it. And they have clearly had enough of the needless threats, harassment and intimidation by some lazy no-gooders, whose only vocation is the extortion of the fruits of other people’s labour.
Lagosians pride themselves on being very smart people. We will know for sure on March 18th.
