Reforms without relief: Nigeria’s enduring economic agony

The World Bank’s recent plea for patience has ignited a firestorm of discontent among Nigerians. At the Economic Summit, Chief Economist Indermit Gill suggested that the nation’s ongoing reforms would require a decade or more to bear fruit. While the government champions these policies as a path to prosperity, many Nigerians are grappling with the harsh reality: soaring prices, dwindling incomes, and a future shrouded in uncertainty. As the reform agenda drags on, the question remains: at what cost to the everyday Nigerian?

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In his Financial Times op-ed, Gill argued that “Nigeria’s government deserves the world’s support,” painting a vision of transformation driven by the current reform agenda. But Gill’s analysis omits an uncomfortable reality: while Nigerians initially embraced the removal of petrol subsidies and the end of a corrupt multi-exchange rate system, these changes have yet to deliver the benefits promised. The public, initially hopeful, now faces skyrocketing inflation, a sharply devalued naira, and rising unemployment, questioning the efficacy of reforms that seem to leave essential issues unaddressed.

At the heart of the matter is a failure to implement reforms holistically. Key state institutions, such as the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited, remain steeped in inefficiencies. Economist Tilewa Adebajo has emphasised that NNPC could contribute between $18 billion and $20 billion to the Treasury if it were better managed—funds that could alleviate some of the fiscal pressure on Nigerians. Yet, reforms to streamline and hold the NNPC accountable remain elusive. The state continues to lose critical revenue due to these inefficiencies, and citizens are left bearing the financial brunt of policies that, in theory, were designed to benefit them.

Moreover, the government’s seeming indifference to essential oil production reforms, which could ease Nigeria’s acute foreign exchange crisis, stands in stark contrast to the urgency of the current situation. The oil sector has the potential to stabilise the economy if managed effectively. Other oil-rich nations, like Norway, have built sovereign wealth funds to protect against market volatility. Nigeria could do the same, yet reforms in this area have stalled.

“The public, initially hopeful, now faces skyrocketing inflation, a sharply devalued naira, and rising unemployment, questioning the efficacy of reforms that seem to leave essential issues unaddressed.”

One of the clearest cases of missed opportunity lies in Nigeria’s untapped assets, estimated at over ₦100 trillion. These assets could serve as a critical revenue source if privatised or more effectively managed. Yet, despite talk of creating a national asset register, progress is absent. The government’s reluctance to move forward on such transformative steps fuels public mistrust and signals a lack of commitment to meaningful, far-reaching reform.

Agriculture, another pillar of Nigeria’s economy, has similarly suffered from neglected reforms. The surge in food prices highlights the need for structural improvements in the sector, from tackling insecurity in farming regions to addressing infrastructure challenges that result in high levels of waste. Such changes would require an overhaul of the nation’s approach to food security, but thus far, agricultural reforms have been piecemeal and insufficient.

Gill’s appeal for patience, while grounded in economic theory, fails to resonate with a public increasingly sceptical of a government that appears unbothered by its own wasteful expenditures. It is not the idea of reform that Nigerians reject, but rather the lack of accountability, transparency, and vision in how these policies are carried out. To ask for “another 10 or 15 years” is to ask the people to accept an undefined period of hardship while they watch leaders evade the sacrifices they are being asked to make.

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If Nigeria’s government seeks the support Gill describes, it must earn the trust of its citizens. This will not happen through vague promises of a brighter future but through decisive, transparent action that spreads the cost of reform fairly and visibly demonstrates commitment to structural improvements. True reform requires more than staying the course—it demands changing direction toward an economy that serves all Nigerians equitably.

To achieve this, the government must prioritize policies that directly benefit the people. This includes investing in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, as well as implementing targeted social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable. Additionally, it is crucial to strengthen governance institutions, reduce corruption, and promote accountability. By taking these steps, the government can foster a more inclusive and prosperous Nigeria where the benefits of economic growth are shared by all.

Until then, requests for patience will continue to ring hollow.