How Nigeria voted in the presidential elections
The geopolitical or regional voting pattern was clearly exhibited in the elections. The North East and North West voted overwhelmingly for the APC. Whereas the South East and South South did same for the PDP. But although the APC had majority of votes in South West and North Central, the margins of win were significantly more suppressed. The PDP was able to pry Oyo out of the grips of APC in the North West and Lagos was evenly split between the 2 parties.
When it is disaggregated further, we see that out of the 19 states won by the APC in the presidential election, 12 of these states currently have the highest poverty level and lowest income per capita in Nigeria. The 10 poorest states in Nigeria have a combined average poverty rate of 83% — almost double the national average. The average headcount poverty rate, that is, the number of people who live below a dollar a day as a proportion of the population among the APC winning states, is 59% (including Lagos). When we exclude Lagos, the average poverty rate in APC winning states comes to 61.3% — which is significantly above the national poverty rate of 54% that makes the country the “poverty capital” of the world.
The average income per capita in those states won by APC is $1,545. When we exclude Lagos, it drops further to $1,353. On the other hand, the average income per capita in those states won by the PDP is $2,585 – a thousand dollar difference!
With Lagos, the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of states won by the APC sums up to N493b. If we exclude Lagos, it drops to N209.54b.
The states won by the PDP on the other hand, have a combined average poverty rate of 37% which is significantly lower than the 59% for APC states, including Lagos and 61% excluding Lagos. The IGR of states where PDP won is N350b, which is again significantly higher than the IGR of APC states.
What does the results Say?
Of the five states with the highest inflation rates including, Bayelsa (13.3%), Zamfara (13.2), Kogi (13.2), Ekiti (13.2) and Jigawa (13.1), PDP won just Bayelsa. PDP also won four out of the five states with the highest unemployment rates including Rivers (42%), Akwa-Ibom (37), Bayelsa (30), Imo (30), Kaduna (29).
When paired against WAEC scores, we observe that the states which have consistently recorded the highest scores in the exam over the past 5 years including Abia (1), Anambra (2), Edo (3), Rivers (4), Imo (5), Lagos (6), Bayelsa (7), Delta (8), Enugu (9), Ebonyi (10) all went to PDP — except Lagos — in the presidential elections.
The elections in general did not spring much surprises as everything turned out as many predicted. While the voting pattern pretty much reinforce a sense of deja vu, it is also the case that it manifests a tinge of class division. The voting pattern is suggestive of a new class dimension caught between the elites (mostly south) and the masses (mostly north). It seems that the more informed, more rational voting elites, preponderantly in the South made a conscious choice for the PDP whereas the masses of the North largely responded to herd behavior, obeying the dictates of political patrons who determined for them whom to vote.
It appears that the PDP and Atiku had a good showing in areas where commercial activity is high relative to the APC. One interpretation could be that the business class have a preference for Atiku who appears to be more market friendly and liberal economic leaning. This class of voters seem to have voted with their heads and minds rather than their hearts and emotions. However, the election in these areas was marred by low voter turnout. But no one doubts the relatively richer south voted massively for the PDP as evidenced by the data.
On the contrary, Buhari swept areas with high poverty concentration and relatively lower educational attainment going by WAEC performance over the past five years. This segment can be said to be dominated by the masses whose voting decisions may not be fully rational and may therefore be considered as overwhelmed with emotions. Pummeled by poverty, inequality, poor educational outcomes and social unrest, the North massively voted for the APC. It also appears that the socialist rhetoric propagated through the oft-repeated mantra of fighting corruption and the other sly manouvre of sharing money in the guise of soft loans, distributed through open markets in the country, predisposed this class of voters to vote for the ruling party. A recent paper calls attention to the “dangers of using socialist rhetoric and envy politics as a tool of governance.” It continues: ”the politics of populism and envy may be very good at winning elections, but they clearly are not good at running successful economies.”
While acknowledging that Nigeria’s election has always been marred by ethno-religious antagonisms — which largely coincides with regional segmentations, it is also worthwhile to pause to appreciate the emerging class conflict that seems to pitch the masses against the elites. Class conflict has always been an issue in modern society since the days of Karl Marx, but its recrudescence in contemporary Nigeria is drawing fuel from the nihilistic politics of scape-goating and finger-pointing that treats opposition as conviction and the unrepentant proclivity to weaponizing poverty.
Bongo Adi
