For most of his seven-and-a-half years in office to date, President Muhammadu Buhari ran Nigeria with such insouciance that suggested he didn’t care about a legacy. However, as his presidency winds down and the inevitability of leaving office on May 29 next year hits home, Buhari has shown a minute-to-midnight desperation for “legacy projects”. Two such “projects” are “redesigning” the naira notes and conducting a population census. But by politicising such issues, by treating them as legacy projects, he undermines them.
Well, my view is that, so far, President Buhari has no legacy that can endure through time. Economists use the term “value for money” to refer to something that is well worth the money spent on it. Tell me, if the hopes of a safer, stronger and more united Nigeria, of secure, prosperous and happier lives, that Nigerians invested in General Buhari in 2015 and 2019 are ‘money spent’, does his administration’s performance, over nearly eight years, across the economy, national security, nation-building, anti-corruption, poverty-reduction, etc., represent good value for money? Absolutely not!
But Buharists disagree. Indeed, one of them, Lai Mohammed, the hyperbolic minister of information, said: “Buhari’s legacy is unmatched in Nigeria’s history.” Recently, he convened public events tagged “Buhari’s Legacy” where he presented the president’s scorecard. Unsurprisingly, infrastructure topped the list, followed by legislations.
Yet, the so-called infrastructure – narrowly-defined and hundred percent debt-financed – can’t be a positive legacy. Why? Well, because, contrary to what infrastructures do, Buhari’s infrastructure projects have not boosted economic growth, increased job-creation and reduced poverty. Instead, it has trapped Nigeria in unsustainable debts that would still be payable decades after the roads and bridges have become decrepit.
President Buhari is desperate for a legacy. But truth is, his enduring legacy will be his broken manifesto promises to fix the economy, tackle insecurity, fight corruption and restructure Nigeria, not his ill-conceived “legacy projects”!
What’s more, with 63 percent of Nigerians (133m people) being multidimensionally poor, that is, experiencing various deprivations, according to a recent index, infrastructure protects become white elephants. Real infrastructure development must enhance a country’s competitiveness, lead to growth and improve lives.
In the US, President Biden’s massive infrastructure programme is underpinned by a law deliberately titled “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act”. It focus not just on roads, bridges and rails, but also on expanding access to drinking water, high-speed internet, health care and education, as well as tackling climate change and investing in poor communities.
Such a comprehensive approach to infrastructure is what drives economic growth, job-creation and poverty-reduction. But Buhari’s infrastructure “revolution” fixates on roads, passenger railways and bridges; it’s detached from the wider economy, doing little to create jobs and raise living standards. It’s not an enduring legacy!
What about legislations? Well, President Buhari rightly receives credit for signing into law bills that languished in the National Assembly for several years, such as the Petroleum Industry Bill that was unsigned for over 10 years, the Companies and Allied Matters Bill that gestated for over 30 years and the first-ever Competition and Consumer Protection Bill. And, of course, the Electoral Act Amendment Bill.
But legislations only contribute to economic growth and prosperity when they are well drafted, properly implemented and supported by complementary policies. Leaving aside their inherent flaws, the Buhari-era legislations suffer from poor implementation, are not even fully implementable and lack complementary policies; hence their desired outcomes remain elusive.
Think about it: the PIA has not pulled foreign investors to the oil sector; CAMA has not transformed the corporate sector; the CCPA has not made the economy more competitive, or consumers better protected, and the new electoral act has not stopped vote-buying; indeed, the jury is still out on whether it could guarantee credible elections next year. In years to come, as it becomes clear that the much-trumpeted legislations are not really transformative, not really game-changing, even Buhari wouldn’t claim them as his legacy!
Which brings us to the currency redesign and population census. Of course, Buhari and his advisers would want to appropriate them as his “legacy”. They would say he’s the first president, in twenty years, to authorise the redesign of naira notes and the first president, in sixteen years, to conduct a census. Except that these are routine, technical issues, and treating them as “Buhari legacy projects” politicises and undermines them.
In the US and the UK, currency redesign and population census are routinely undertaken by technical bodies without the president or prime minister treating them as legacy projects. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing (PEP) and the Bank of England redesign currencies in the US and UK, respectively, every five or eight years without much ado, except proper consultations with stakeholders. As for census, the Census Bureau (the US) and the Office of National Statistics (UK) do it routinely every ten years. Last year, when the UK conducted its census, the ONS simply sent letters to homes pointing them to the census questions online. Truth is, in other climes, politician play no central roles in these issues! But not Nigeria!
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Take the currency redesign. Godwin Emefiele, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, said: “In the past, attempts to redesign and reissue currencies have been resisted.” He then added: “Only a President of Muhammadu Buhari’s character could have made it happen.” See? A Buhari “legacy” claim! Emefiele, a Buharist, was crediting Buhari with allowing the currency redesign. As military head of state in 1984, Buhari changed the currencies; his recent unveiling of the redesigned naira notes must have evoked a strong feeling of déjà vu!
But why now? Why six months to the end of his tenure? The mischiefs that the “currency redesign” aims to tackle, such as inflation, counterfeiting, money circulating outside the banking system, have existed over the past seven-and-a-half years of the Buhari government. And if it’s intended to revive the economy, why now when the economy is comatose? Too little, too late!
Some say the currency redesign was aimed at “catching” politicians who hoard naira notes for next year’s elections. But they’re probably using them to buy and hoard dollars; they would buy votes with dollars, not naira. Remember “dollar rain”?
But why the haste? When the US redesigns its currency, it allows six to eight months for public and cash-handler engagement. Ditto the UK. But the CBN allows less than three months, rendering the old naira notes illegal by the end of January. Last week, the CBN capped withdrawals at banks for individuals and businesses at N100,000 and N500,000 per week, respectively. The losers would be ordinary Nigerians and micro, small and medium enterprises, MSMEs. What about the large informal sector? The IMF is right: the currency redesign could be counterproductive. But who cares when it’s a Buhari legacy project?
Finally, the population census. President Buhari ordered the National Population Commission, NPC, to conduct a census next April. True, Nigeria needs a population census; the last was sixteen years ago, in 2006. But why a month before Buhari leaves office? Indeed, why after next year’s elections?
In 2015, Professor Attahiru Jega, former INEC chairman, said in a lecture at the London School of Economics that he regretted that INEC couldn’t conduct a review of electoral constituencies and polling units in Nigeria. Fair electoral constituency structures are critical to fair elections.
But they require accurate population census. If Buhari cares about fair elections, he should have conducted a census long before next year’s elections to address Nigeria’s current skewed constituency structure, which, as Jega put it, “favoured some constituencies over others”. But Buhari is averse to structural reforms.
President Buhari is desperate for a legacy. But truth is, his enduring legacy will be his broken manifesto promises to fix the economy, tackle insecurity, fight corruption and restructure Nigeria, not his ill-conceived “legacy projects”!
