• Thursday, March 28, 2024
businessday logo

BusinessDay

Comedy of clowns: A theory of seeking office for elective office in Nigeria

2023 election, the electoral institutions and the rest of us

More than 25 presidential aspirants picked the All Progressives Congress (APC) expression of interest forms at N100 million each at the close of the submission of the forms last Friday night.

The forms purchased by proxies for former President Goodluck Jonathan and Godwin Emiefele, governor of the central bank, were not returned. Probably Goodluck Jonathan has not received the guarantee he sought from the president of being handed the party’s ticket while Emiefele chickened out when he realised he could not pretend to be contesting for president while still functioning as the governor of the central bank.

I was discussing with some friends a week ago and I joked that buying the APC’s expression of interest form is the most profitable investment anyone can make in the world. This is because in a matter of weeks, a N100 million investment could fetch the investor between 100 – 1000 percent legitimate returns on investment. There is absolutely no business or investment anywhere else in the world that promises or guarantees such huge returns in so short a time.

This piece, however, is to show how the entire political process has been completely commercialised and the process is tailored to tend to the interest of politicians rather than the people, whom they all swore to serve

I use the word investment deliberately because purchasing the form – if indeed the aspirants used their hard-earned or even stolen funds to purchase the form – means they are truly willing to go the whole hog of really contesting and winning the presidency with its awesome powers of patronage and instantaneous enrichment or they will all be settled handsomely were the party to decide – which is most likely – to go the route of selecting their flag bearer through consensus rather than a competitive primary.

Alternatively, most of those purchasing the forms may actually be sponsored by a stronger candidate who is feeling confident of having secured a good number of the delegates’ votes but still feels threatened by the entry of other likely strong candidates. By flooding the field with so many aspirants, he may derail the chances of the other strong candidates he fears or, in a worst-case scenario, even if the jostling goes down to competitive primaries, the other aspirants will siphon key votes away from his staunchest competitors and with his secured delegates votes, run out the undisputed winner.

In the event that the party decides on consensus, his sponsored minions simply drop their bid or even vote to support him as the preferred candidate. It is a political master strategy in the Nigerian environment.

Nigeria is a funny country and what plays out in the open is usually a choreographed version of what actually happens behind closed doors. Over time, Nigerian politicians have come to realise the immense profit and returns they can make from pretending to be presidential or gubernatorial contestants in popular or ruling political parties.

Of course, the parties are always willing to entertain such interests, and to raise money for the party, they set the price tag of their expression of interest form so high. The parties always argue that the rationale is to weed out unserious candidates. But the real motive is to raise funds for the party and guarantee a huge payout for all the losers in the process.

The pretenders have no issue buying or paying for the forms. Some may even seek out bank loans or funding from family and friends. It is understood to be a far more secure form of investment than even the stock market, hedge fund or any such established investment avenues.

When it’s getting to time for the primaries, the search for consensus begins – and all aspirants are approached to drop their interests for a secure payout and even future spoils when the party wins the election. It is at this point all the pretenders receive their initial investments and returns and drop out for the real candidates interested in going the whole hog. If the candidate they reached an agreement with clinches the party ticket and goes on to win the election, there may be additional payout in form of contracts and or appointment(s) to follow. But at a minimum, their initial investment is never lost and usually comes with good and mouth-watering returns.

Read also: 2023: Leave Nigerians alone if you have nothing to offer, Shehu Sani tells APC

So the majority of the APC presidential aspirants you see doling out a N100 million to pick the forms may not be really interested or know they have next to zero percent chance of picking the party ticket. But they entered the race anyway because, at any rate, they are guaranteed their investment sums and a handsome return in a matter of weeks. And this usually happens with ruling parties whose access to public funds is guaranteed or top opposition parties whose chances of winning elections are so high. But with opposition figures, except the leading candidate is extremely wealthy as to pay off his challengers immediately before the polls, the payout is expected to come after the party wins the election.

That is why, for instance, the moment President Buhari gave the orders for appointed aspirants to resign their appointments first, most of the pretenders started backing out. This is expected because they make much more now being in government, virtually unsupervised, and with huge funds to retire in the coming months as the administration winds down than the expected payout they will receive in the election process.

It’s unfortunate this piece is entirely theoretical. Although I know of real-life experiences from which this theory was drawn, I am unable to cite those experiences. This piece, however, is to show how the entire political process has been completely commercialised and the process is tailored to tend to the interest of politicians rather than the people, whom they all swore to serve.