President Buhari recently complained that Nigeria’s elite were treating his government unfairly. Speaking after revalidating his party membership in Daura, Kastina State on January 31, President Buhari said: “No, Nigeria’s elite are not interested in rating the competence of my government, but they are interested in harassing us with all the efforts we are making.”
To be sure, Buhari has always argued that he inherited a “state of decay and rot” but has “worked so hard with limited resources” to make things better. In his New Year’s message in January, the president said, “I call upon all Nigerians to carefully recall the circumstances of our coming to office, the facts on the ground and the resources at our disposal since 2015 with the accomplishments of this administration.” So, Buhari’s angst with the Nigerian elite, whoever they are, is that they are not giving his government the credit it deserves.
But how true are President Buhari’s claims? Well, the truth is that he, indeed, inherited a bad situation, but it is also true that he has made the bad situation a lot worse through bad policies, unwise actions and, indeed, inactions. It is simply not true that he has improved the situation he met in office.
The Buhari government’s entrenched protectionism and interventionism has done irreversible damage to private-sector dynamism, business growth and investor confidence
That said, it would be unfair to say that President Buhari’s administration hasn’t achieved anything in its nearly six years in office. No government, however bad, can have no achievement at all. So, before we come to his administration’s failings, let us look at its achievements. For me, there are, broadly speaking, three!
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First, President Buhari has supported many Nigerians to secure important international jobs. For instance, history will record that it’s under his administration that a Nigerian, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, became the first African and the first female Director-General of the World Trade Organisation. President Buhari deserves credit for nominating Dr Okonjo-Iweala for the WTO top job and for standing by her candidacy through thick and thin. He did the same thing for Dr Akinwumi Adesina, supporting his election and re-election as president of the African Development Bank, also standing by him in difficult times. These diplomatic victories are good for Nigeria and President Buhari should be credited for his role in achieving them.
Second, the Buhari administration has made some progress on infrastructure, particularly railways, albeit almost entirely debt-funded, with Chinese money and firms being front and centre of it. But the government’s claim of a “rail revolution” has some truth in it; the railways, Buhari’s pet infrastructure, are, indeed, being resuscitated.
Third, President Buhari has signed into law several critical bills that had gestated and languished for several years, even decades. Notable among these are the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020, which replaced the 30-year-old Companies and Allied Matters Act of 1990, and Nigeria’s first-ever Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act 2018. These laws are not perfect but, given how long we talked about the need for them, their enactments by Buhari’s administration are significant, and to his credit.
But, let’s face it, all these achievements, laudable as they may be, are easy wins. None of them requires great competence. For instance, any president can nominate a citizen for an international job, even if he lacks the international clout to secure victory for him or her. Dr Okonjo-Iweala said in one interview that while the Nigerian government provided basic assistance, she relied mainly on her own resources and a global network of contacts to campaign for her selection, and, as we know, without the election of President Biden she wouldn’t have got the job. Indeed, Dr Okonjo-Iweala explicitly admitted that in her acceptance speech, saying, “Without the recent swift action by the Biden-Harris Administration to join the consensus of the membership on my candidacy, we would not be here today.”
Equally, any president can sign contracts with China for rail constructions, funded by China and executed by Chinese firms. Given how willing China is, in pursuit of its strategic Belt and Road Initiative, to fund and build railways overseas, no government should take too much credit for China’s debt-financed infrastructure projects. Indeed, infrastructure socialism, where government solely funds infrastructure projects through borrowings, without private investment or financing, is no real achievement. The Buhari government recently formed the Infrastructure Corporation of Nigeria Limited (InfraCorp), a public-private infrastructure fund. But, despite InfraCorp, Nigeria lacks the policy and institutional environment to attract serious private infrastructure investment.
Finally, any president with a parliamentary majority can secure the enactments of bills and sign them into law. Furthermore, with weak administrative and institutional capacities, the new laws will face huge implementation challenges.
So, truth is, President Buhari has simply picked the low-hanging fruit. On his key election promises, he completely comes a cropper. In a democracy, elected politicians are judged by their manifesto commitments. In 2015, President Buhari ran on a platform of economic revival, national security and anti-corruption. But on each of these, he has, nearly six years in power, failed woefully to deliver on his promise. What exactly has Buhari done on the thorny issues of economic deterioration, worsening insecurity and endemic corruption? The answer is not much at all!
Take the economy. It is in terrible shape. The economy is certainly a lot worse today than what Buhari inherited in 2015. Since then, there have been two recessions, making him a two-recession president. Recently, some were praising President Buhari for the economy’s unexpected exit from the recession, as the GDP grew by 0.11% in the fourth quarter. But really? What kind of recovery is that? How will that sluggish growth reduce poverty in Nigeria? About 3.5m young Nigerians enter the working age every year, where are the jobs for them? Under Buhari’s government, Nigeria became the “poverty capital of the world”, and business failures, capital flight, inflation and unemployment have skyrocketed.
And why? Well, because of bad policies and unwillingness to undertake critical reforms. The Buhari government’s entrenched protectionism and interventionism has done irreversible damage to private-sector dynamism, business growth and investor confidence. A president whose body language and policy instincts are hostile to the private sector cannot engender confidence in an economy. A central bank governor whose reflex policy response is to ban things, rather than pursue market-based reforms, cannot inspire business confidence. A country without a single market-based exchange rate, but rather multiple exchange rates that create arbitrage opportunities, can’t boost investor confidence or be an attractive investment destination.
Truth is, Nigeria needs to be seen as a good place to do business, as an attractive investment destination. But the Buhari government doesn’t care about such things. It behaves arrogantly and ignores calls by the IMF and other international economic institutions for structural reforms. As a result, the economy is comatose, with the possibility only of a weak or anaemic recovery.
What about national security? Well, Nigeria faces greater threats to its security and internal cohesion today than it did before Buhari became president in 2015. Everyone knows that the security situation is worsening and deteriorating. As I write, the BBC has just reported that at least 300 girls are feared kidnapped by gunmen in Zafara State. Under Buhari, terrorists and armed bandits are literally in control!
Finally, what about corruption? Well, despite nearly six years of a much-hyped anti-graft war, the recent verdict of Transparency International says it all: Nigeria is the second most corrupt country in West Africa! Say no more!
So, Nigeria’s elite are not unfairly harassing President Buhari’s government. Any assessment of his government shows that, at best, it is only picking the low-hanging fruit and, at worst, it’s making bad decisions and avoiding critical reforms. True, Buhari inherited a bad situation, but he has made it utterly worse. Saying that is not harassment; it is a fair assessment!
