Too often, the phrase “make or break” is used without meaning or consequence. But if there’s any time when the phrase is consequential, it’s this year as Nigeria elects its next leader. Make no mistake, the outcome of February’s presidential poll will determine whether Nigeria’s chronic and acute rut will start to reverse or deepen even further.
That’s why no patriotic Nigerian should sit on the fence or be indifferent to next month’s presidential election. And it’s why I have nailed my colours to the mast, why I have been unequivocal in this column about where I stand regarding Nigeria’s next president.
For truth be told, the battle for the soul of Nigeria, for the future of this country, is between the forces of evil and the forces of good; the forces of stagnation and the forces of change; the forces of retrogression and the forces of progress. Well, dare I add, he forces of division and exclusivism and the forces of unity and inclusivism.
Sadly, although the forces of good, progress and unity are in the majority, they are often too indifferent, too inactive, to make a difference. By contrast, the forces of evil, retrogression and division have enormous resources as well as absolute motivation and determination to organise and mobilise to achieve their self-serving objectives.
No patriotic Nigerian who truly loves this country should sit on the fence or be indifferent to February’s presidential election and who becomes Nigeria’s next president
The above proposition is best explained by Mancur Olson’s collective action theory and public choice theory. According to these theories, it’s hard to achieve the critical mass for positive change because everyone wants to “free ride” on the efforts of others; everyone is waiting for others to take the necessary action. But if you’re waiting for me to do something, and I’m waiting for you to do it, well, simple logic: it won’t be done!
But the root-cause of the collective action problem is what political economists describe as “concentrated gains/dispersed losses”. Basically, this means that if the gains from a particular endeavour are concentrated, those likely to benefit from the endeavour would do anything to pursue it. But if the losses from such endeavour are dispersed and widely spread, those likely to suffer from the endeavour would lack the incentive to mobilise and stop it. This is also known as “concentrated interests” versus “diffused interests”.
For example, if someone says that becoming Nigeria’s president is his “lifelong ambition” and that it’s his “entitlement” and “turn” to be president, surely, the gains from achieving that ambition would be so concentrated for him, his family, his friends, his hangers-on, etc – “concentrated interests” – that he and his supporters would do anything to achieve, by hook or crook, that self-interested ambition
Now, for Nigeria as an entity, the losses from the actualisation of that selfish ambition would be concentrated in terms of various harms to the nation. But for Nigerians, the losses would be dispersed, thus creating “diffused interests” across the country.
In such circumstances, many people, particularly the middle classes and the youth, who think they can “get by” under any hardship, and rarely worry about Nigeria as a whole, may lack the incentive to mobilise and act collectively to scotch such selfish and potentially national-harming ambitions. And that’s without mentioning primordial factors, such as ethnicity, religion and the role of unexplained wealth, of slush funds!
The above is what, ominously, makes this year “make or break” for Nigeria. The forces of evil, retrogression and disunity are circling like vultures, marshalling all resources, illicit or otherwise, to capture the presidency. They are supported by enemies of Nigeria, who tell us that character, integrity and honesty do not matter as presidential attributes.
But where are the forces of good, progress and unity? Are they going to stand idly by and allow the forces of evil and their enablers to prevail? Didn’t Edmund Burke, or someone, say that “the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing”?
I mean, how many Nigerians who truly love this country and are eligible to vote have collected their Permanent Voters’ Cards, PVCs, and how many of those with PVCs will actually vote on February 25? And how many would vote for the candidate with the right combination of capacity, competence, vision and integrity, who can start the process of rebuilding Nigeria and radically transforming its destiny?
I repeat: no patriotic Nigerian who truly loves this country should sit on the fence or be indifferent to February’s presidential election and who becomes Nigeria’s next president.
That’s why I applaud former President Olusegun Obasanjo for publicly endorsing former Governor Peter Obi, presidential candidate of Labour Party, as his choice for president. Due to sour grapes or mischiefs, some attacked Obasanjo, but none impeached his reasoning.
In an open letter on January 1, titled “My Appeal to All Nigerians, Particularly Young Nigerians,” former President Obasanjo listed four attributes the next president should possess. He called them TVCP, meaning: 1) Track record of ability and performance; 2) Vision that is authentic, honest and realistic; 3) Character and attributes of a lady and a gentleman who are children of God and obedient to God; and 4) Physical and mental capability with soundness of mind.
Based on those parameters, Obasanjo wrote: “None of the contestants is a saint, but when one compares their character, antecedents, their understanding, knowledge, discipline and vitality that they can bring to bear and the great efforts required to stay focused on the job, particularly looking at where the country is today … Peter Obi has an edge.”
I agree with former President Obasanjo, and with Chief Edwin Clark, Leader of Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Leader of the Pan Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere, and leaders of the Middle-Belt Forum, who have also endorsed Obi on grounds of equity, fairness and justice, arguing that power should rotate to the South East!
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Truth is, of the four leading presidential candidates – Atiku Abubakar of PDP, Bola Tinubu of APC, Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP and Peter Obi of LP – Obi is the best. He’s the only one whose election as president would tick the right boxes, not only in terms character and vision, but also in terms of managing Nigeria’s diversity.
To be honest, I like some of what Atiku is saying. “Restructuring”, “government of national unity” “free-market economy” are what I have advocated for years. But Atiku has a serious trust problem; there’s something of the night about him. More fundamentally, given Nigeria’s diversity, it’s hard to justify Atiku, a northerner, succeeding Buhari, a northerner!
But Tinubu is absolutely beyond the pale. Indeed, a Tinubu presidency would be so utterly abhorrent on many grounds that I regard anyone supporting his “lifelong ambition” and endorsing his “Emi lokan” sense of entitlement as an enemy of Nigeria. Those citing his overhyped “achievements” in Lagos State, while ignoring allegations of massive “state capture” and grand corruption – large scale transfer of public resources for private interest – are misguided and unpatriotic. Besides, they forget that Nigeria is not Lagos!
What’s more, Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, the threats his presidency would pose to ethnic and religious harmony, and his acute character and integrity deficits make him unsuitable to be president of Nigeria. Think about it. Can Nigeria really have as president someone who forfeited $460,000 to US authorities in a drug-related property seizure, with the evidence publicly available? Only the unhinged, the unpatriotic, will endorse that!
So, Nigeria faces a looming calamity, the country’s future hangs perilously in the balance. But would Nigerians avert the disaster next month? Well, they must!
Happy New Year to everyone!
