Data on vital economic indices released by different (national and international) agencies are most times inconsistent, and users of those data such as analysts, investors, policymakers and stakeholders are confused, as they do not know the one to hold true.
Experts and analysts sometimes question the authenticity of data on key economic statistics given the conflicting figures published by different statistical bodies like National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and International Labour Organisation (ILO), to mention a few.
“Most of them got their data from different sources and it is needful for them to always disclose the source(s) where those data are gotten from,” Olusola Arawomo, an economics lecturer at Obafemi Awolowo University, told BusinessDay.
The ILO in partnership with the World Bank reported that Nigeria’s unemployment rate was 7.04 percent. Meanwhile, BusinessDay analysis of the average unemployment rates released by the NBS from the first to fourth quarter of 2017, which is equally the annual average unemployment rate, settled at 17.46 percent, a sharp contrast of 10.42 percent.
UNCTAD and World Bank’s data on FDI inflows to Nigeria in 2016 and 2017 conflicted. While UNCTAD reported that Nigeria attracted FDI worth of $4,487.7 million in 2016, World Bank’s figure was $4, 445.1 million, indicating a variance of $42,600.
FDI inflows to Nigeria in 2017 equally differed by $580,000. World Bank put FDI inflows to Nigeria in 2017 at $3,497.2 million, and UNCTAD – $3,503.0 million.
Information on Nigeria’s crude oil production for first and second quarter of 2018 reported by the NBS and Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly contrasted. According to the NBS, daily oil production averaged 2.00 million and 1.84 million barrels in first and second quarter of 2018, different from 2.11 million and 1.92 million barrels reported by the EIA.
The report of NBS disagreed with that of World Bank on the country’s annual average inflation rate (consumer prices) for the previous year, 2017. While the World Bank put Nigeria’s annual average inflation rate at 16.5%, the annual average inflation rate of NBS for that year settled at 16.54%, a paltry divergence of 0.04%.
“The divergence could also have emanated from the methodologies these agencies employ to collect and collate data. Using different methodologies to collect and collate data will definitely produce different results,” Olusola said.
To Paul Afolayan, a data scientist and analyst, disparity in data reported by different agencies is largely connected to the fact that the sub-indicators used to compute these metrics are different.
The demand for good-quality statistical data has continued to be on the upward trend over the years. Reliable data are needed to set baselines, identify private and public actions, set goals and targets, monitor progress and evaluate impacts.
