The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected the unemployment rate in Africa’s most populous nation to rise to 37 percent in 2023.
This means that the projected unemployment rate is about four percentage points higher than the National Bureau of Statistics data of 33.3 percent as of 2020.
In its latest report 2023 Macroeconomic Outlook report titled ‘Nigeria in Transition: Recipes for Shared Prosperity’, the private policy advocacy group said, the projected rate and the poverty headcount will amplify to 45 percent.
“This is due to weak performance in the job-elastic sectors, low labour absorption of sectors that will drive growth, and population growth estimated at 3.2 percent will lead to a decline in real per capita income,” it said.
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The report also revealed that the inflation rate will average 20.5 percent in 2023 and that the country’s Gross Domestic Growth rate will moderate to 2.98 percent.
“Inflationary pressure is expected to remain elevated, driven by structural, cost and monetary factors. Food inflation will remain the fundamental driver of inflation due to the enduring impact of flooding, increased production costs due to increased cost of credit, insecurity and displacement,” the report said.
“Existing fuel shortages and the removal of fuel subsidies will continue to increase the core components, especially transportation.”
The think-tank group further said, economic growth will be subdued in 2023 due to strains on investment and low productivity in critical sectors.
“The services sector will drive economic growth, but this growth will not be strong enough to generate significant jobs,” it said
“As a result, unemployment will remain unabated. Economic growth will be supported by election-related spending and improvement in the oil sector.”