Nigeria’s headline inflation drops to 15.10% in January

Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.10 percent despite the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recent CPI normalisation that created a lower base effect for January 2025, as food and core inflation dropped.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased to 15.10 percent in January 2026, from 15.15 percent in December 2025.

This drop is contrary to analysts projection of an increase in the inflation figure to 18-19 percent levels.

“We see the headline inflation rate rising to around 18–19 percent levels. However, consistent with our projections in our year ahead 2026 outlook, we expect a broadly disinflationary trend over the course of the year, supported by softer energy prices, stable exchange rate conditions, and easing food prices,” Tunde Abidoye, head of equity research at FBNQuest said in its daily note last week.

January’s inflation reading reflects a deceleration in both the food and core baskets, which decreased to 8.89 percent and 17.72 percent respectively.

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Month-on-Month, headline inflation was -2.88 percent, which was 3.42 percent lower that 0.54 percent the previous month, . This means that in January 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in December 2025.

According to analysts Meristem of January 2026, inflationary pressures continued to moderate, largely on account of the normalisation of post-holiday demand and fairly strong supply conditions.

“ Data from our Commodities Price Tracker indicates sustained cooling in food prices, with key staples such as maize and sorghum recording declines, while paddy rice posted a slower price increase. However, oilseeds, including soya beans and sesame, experienced renewed price pressures, chiefly driven by stronger export demand,” research analysts at Meristem mentioned in the report.

They stated that PMS prices remained largely stable for the most part of the month following the Dangote Refinery’s price reduction in December, with most stations retailing PMS around N739.00 per litre.

Additionally, the naira gained 7.82 percent in January, averaging N1,416.52/$ in the official market from N1,451.80/USD in December 2025. The stronger currency is expected to ease import-related costs, potentially supporting further deceleration in FX-exposed components of the core index.