The presidential task force on COVID-19 has more lawyers than epidemiologists. And although it has killed over 90 people, many still doubt the virus’ existence because communication is spotty. Those told to wash hands lack water and millions forced on lockdown have to choose between death by hunger or the virus. These examples show how Nigeria is botching its coronavirus response.
As Nigeria begins to ease lockdown implemented in Lagos, Ogun, and Abuja to combat the novel coronavirus, there is palpable concern that it is happening right on the cusp of the most potent phase of the virus – community transmission, a tacit acknowledgment that the country has bungled five-weeks it should have spent ramping testing and fixing up facilities.
Nigeria has done over 13,000 tests and raised its testing capacity to 3,000 a day but it lacks the critical reagents to meet that capacity. It has intensive care bed space for less than 350 people and a governor without scientific fact is promoting chloroquine against guidelines of the national agency charged with tackling the virus.
It was always going to be easier to freeze the economy that it would be to thaw it. For governments around the world, flattening the Coronavirus curve has seen economists spar with public health officials over how the economy would be reopened, in Nigeria it is the politicians talking at the people often without reference to science, experts say.
Panelists at a webinar on Nigeria’s response to COVID-19 Pandemic, moderated by Frank Nweke II, which had as members Lola Dare, a community physician and social entrepreneur; Chidi Odinkalu, senior team manager, the Africa Program of Open Society Justice Initiative; Aisha Umar, lawyer and partner at Abuja-based ProDiverse Legal, and Oluseun Onigbinde, Co-founder BudgIT, came to the conclusion that Nigeria’s ‘cure’ seemed worse than the disease.
Odinkalu took a swipe at President Buhari’s inability to provide leadership early on, addressing Nigerians only after persistent excoriation from the public. Then he constituted a task force heavy with civil servants but having scant knowledge about the virus. Chikwe Ihekweazu has taken a leading role in tackling the virus even though he is an epidemiologist though many countries have virologists advising their governments.
Prior to the arrival of the first index case on February 27 in Lagos, the Federal Government ignored counsel to shut the airport or implement strict quarantine procedures for those returning to Nigeria.
Even after the first index case was isolated, it took weeks to trace the contacts and many more to close the airports. Those who returned from abroad were only encouraged to self-isolate. Many ignored setting the stage for community spread.
“Nigeria’s response was knee-jerk, it could have done better,” said Dare. The public health expert said the government’s actions were not based on science or evidence and created an ecosystem for the spread of the virus because it didn’t understand the way the pathology was behaving in Nigeria’s environment.
But this would be hardly surprising in a third-world country bereft of basic primary healthcare, with poor education and government officials who are mistrusted by their people, according to Umar.
“You can’t expect a turnaround from a mediocre nation just because we have a pandemic,” said Onigbinde.
Throughout the last five decades since crude oil was discovered, Nigeria’s economy has risen and fallen in the direction of oil markets. In periods of boom, the government spends with the prolificacy of the prodigal son and during bursts, the country experiences shocks similar to an addict on the first day at rehab.
Nigeria has defunded critical sectors of the economy including education, defense, healthcare, and social investments. It spends more on wasteful petrol subsidies than it does on health and education yearly.
An over-bloated civil service is both corrupt and unproductive and poor regulation stifles the private sector. This has led to the exodus of private capital.
The experts say that for the country to get out of the current funk, it must reduce the cost of governance, ramp up social capital investments and increase budgetary allocations to health and education.
Umar called for revamping the agricultural sector to provide food security but said it must be targeted and purposely directed at certain commodities with a clear objective.
Onigbinde called for the diversification of the economy from crude oil into manufactured exports, agricultural exports and attracting investments for manufacturing growth.
The civic rights activist said Nigeria cannot develop as long as it depends on oil. “Whenever, oil prices rise, we forget diversification.”
The situation is much critical now. Declining oil income would lead to over 60 percent fall in revenue and will significantly affect the Federal Government’s ability to meet allocation to states and settle its balance of payment obligations. It has already led to the scarcity of foreign exchange and inflation could soon rise.
According to Onigbinde at the current rate, at least 21 states will not be able to pay salaries by June.
The Nigerian government is borrowing to pay salaries but could see its wiggle room to raise debt curtailed if oil prices remained bearish for long. This perhaps informed the decision to trim the government’s unwieldy bureaucracy.
In addition, the experts said the government must also review finances of its revenue agencies including the Nigerian Port Authority, Nigerian Customs and the NNPC to make them more efficient.
However, these counsels while not novel, have often failed to gain traction among various governments including this APC-led government, even though it is pirouetted at election campaigns, because the political will is lacking
“The political will to see the process through, in spite of the challenges, could, in itself be a hurdle,” says Ayodele Oni, a lawyer based in Lagos.
Oni argued that those that may be adversely affected by the reforms could scuttle the process.
