After a growth rebound of the Nigerian economy, authorities are now hopeful of some 5 percent expansion in 2021 – though premised on continued improvement in economic activities.
The new statistician general of the Federation, Simon Harry says the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) believes the 5 percent forecast is possible if the right things are done to spur growth.
“We hope that government continues to improve budget funding, especially for those key sectors that have the potential for growth but are underperforming, like agriculture which did not perform so well in Q2 for to encourage output.
“We are hoping that by the end of the year, the Nigerian economy should be able to grow above 5%.”
But the NBS growth forecast is well above the 3 percent growth projection in the 2021 federal budget and 2.5 percent estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The baseline effect has helped Nigeria report a 5 percent Year-on-Year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2.
The 2021 Q2 growth rate reflects much better economic performance compared to the same period last year, which recorded a -6.10 percent growth rate.
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It was also better than the previous quarter (Q1) growth rate of 0.51 percent, on a year-on-year basis. Real GDP grew 2.70 percent in 2021 compared to-2.18 percent for the first half of 2020
But those who know say the present realities suggest that the recorded growth which government authorities are excited about, is neither sustainable nor inclusive and that more needed to be done to forestall a slip.
Harry who spoke at a press meeting in Abuja – where authorities took time to explain the Q2 GDP outcomes- seems to agree with this position.
“Without sustaining the growth, you don’t expect any impact and that is why we at the NBS continue to encourage the government putting in place deliberate policies to sustain the growth and even improve on it,” he stated.
The Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed,
said the Q2 figures were real and that though they indicated a base effect, it was still better than a stagnated growth or worse still, a contraction.
“Growth in Q2 2021 would have been much stronger had it not been for Agriculture recording slower growth at 1.30% due to several bottlenecks currently negatively affecting the sector and due to the Industrial sector contracting by -1.23% largely due to the over 12% contraction in Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production.”
She said the growth indicated progress with the government’s economic growth and recovery plan, and additional measures were being put in place to deliver real value to Nigerians through efforts at curbing inflationary pressures and budget implementation.
The minister of state for Budget and National Planning, Clement Agba, said the government is mindful of the need to boost the economy, hence the timely release of the capital expenditure (Capex) component of the budget.
According to him, the government has funded up to 75 percent of this year’s budget and more cash would be released to the ministries and departments and agencies, for more projects and programmes, especially with the onset of the dry season.
He also hinted that the 2021-2025 Medium-Term National Development Plan being awaited, contains important reforms which would drive further economic stability and help cut down high poverty and unemployment levels.
The Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, assured that the government will not relent in efforts to strengthen the economy in a way that Nigerians would begin to see the value.
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