Nigeria records world’s sharpest petrol price rise amid Middle East war

Nigeria has seen the steepest increase in pump prices of any country in the world, with petrol costs rising 39.5 per cent between 23rd February and 16th March, according to Global Petrol Prices data.

The surge, which has pushed prices to as much as ₦1,200 per litre, has doubled transport costs on some major routes across the country.

Nigeria’s increase outpaced all other markets tracked in the period. Laos recorded the second-highest rise at 32.9 per cent, followed by Australia and Vietnam at 31.8 per cent each, and the United States at 23.6 per cent. Spain saw an 18.7 per cent increase, Canada 17.2 per cent, Germany 14.9 per cent, Egypt 14.3 per cent, and France 12.3 per cent. At the lower end, South Africa recorded a marginal 1 per cent rise and Mexico 0.5 per cent.

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The increases follow an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which analysts say has caused the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, pushing crude prices to a four-year high.

The development is particularly striking in Nigeria’s case, given that domestic refining was widely expected to cushion the country from exactly this kind of external shock. It has not. On 13th March, the Dangote refinery raised its ex-gantry price to ₦1,175 per litre, having acknowledged days earlier that it sources crude based on international benchmarks and is therefore not insulated from global market trends.

Compounding the picture, Nigeria’s own crude output fell to 1.31 million barrels per day in February, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries — weakening the country’s position precisely when global prices are at their most punishing.