The world presently battles the Coronavirus pandemic, which has ravaged so many countries of the world, and which in turn have put in place almost homogeneous measures to mitigate the spread of the novel virus. These preventive measures have inadvertently adversely affected economies and health systems of the countries hit by the virus. At present, over three million individuals have been infected across the globe with attendants of 220,414 deaths. The United States of America, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and France are the worst hit. In Nigeria, 44 individuals have been killed by the novel virus and the country has recorded 255 recoveries.
Food prices were generally highest in Bayelsa, Kwara and Ogun while the same was generally lowest in Bauchi, Jigawa and Katsina
For now, the economic lockdown continues to bite harder, Nigeria is not left behind in this because the economic effects of the mitigation measures put in place by the President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari have immediately impacted the commodity markets resulting in a higher inflationary trend. With some of these measures still in place, there is a high likelihood the rising trend will continue in the months ahead.
The pandemic effect before the 5-week lock down in some states
The economic impact of coronavirus in Nigeria became more apparent in March 2020 following its first case in February 2020. The impact in March 2020 is a toddler compared to that of April 2020 as the lock down and other major disruptions in normal economic activities of several states were not captured in this article because it is limited to the report of March 2020 alone. The lockdown effects this month will be spotlighted in April 2020 report.
The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased month-on-month (MoM) by 0.84 per cent in March 2020. This is 0.05 percentage point higher than the rate recorded in February 2020 (0.79 per cent).
At the same time, the inflation rate increased year-on-year (YoY) by 12.26 per cent in the same month, representing a 0.06 percentage point increase over the YoY rate recorded in February 2020 (12.20 percent) just before the initial 2-week lockdown in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun states.
The percentage change in the average composite (rural and urban) CPI for the twelve-month period ending March 2020, over the average CPI for the previous twelve-month period ending March 2019 was 11.62 per cent. This represents 0.08 percentage point increase over 11.54 percent recorded in similar average for February 2020.
In the urban area, inflation rate increased by 12.93 per cent YoY in March 2020; a 0.08 percentage point increase from 12.85 per cent YoY change recorded in February 2020. On a MoM basis, the urban index rose by 0.88 per cent, up by 0.06 percentage point from 0.82 per cent recorded in the previous month. This MoM growth is largely the contribution of “food prices” to the overall consumer items.
Similarly, the rural inflation rate increased by 0.03 percentage point to 11.64 per cent in March 2020 from 11.61 percent in February 2020, a major contributor to that index is the prices of food. At the same time, the index rose by 0.80 per cent, an additional 0.04 percentage point from the 0.76 per cent increase recorded in the previous month.
The percentage change in the average urban index for the twelve-month period ending March 2020, over the average CPI for the previous twelve-month period ending March increased by 12.15 per cent in March 2020 (this is 0.12 percentage point higher than 12.03 per cent reported in February 2020), while the corresponding rural inflation rate in March 2020 was up by 0.05 percentage point to 11.14 per cent in March 2020 compared to 11.09 per cent recorded in the previous month.
How did it affect selected foods prices?
From the selected Food Price Watch data in March 2020, the average price of 1 dozen of agric eggs (medium size) increased year-on-year by 0.29 per cent and month-on month by 2.87 per cent to N461.15 in March 2020 from N448.26 in February 2020; while the average price of 1 piece of agric egg (medium size) increased MoM by 1.53 per cent to N39.90 in March 2020 from N39.29 in February 2020. This price represents a decrease of 4.83 per cent YoY.
Similarly, the average price of 1kg of tomato increased by 6.25 per cent YoY and by 5.60 per cent MoM to N255.33 in March 2020 from N241.78 in the corresponding month last year. The same price fluctuation was recorded for rice and yam where the average price of 1kg of rice (imported high quality sold loose) increased by 21.21 per cent YoY but decreased by 1.21 per cent MoM to N438.66 from N444.04 while the average price of 1kg of yam tuber increased both YoY and MoM by 2.61 per cent and 8.75 per cent respectively to N206.12 from N189.53, all to March 2020 from February 2020.The “Food” index (for both urban and rural) rose by 14.98 per cent YoY in March 2020 compared to 14.90 per cent in February 2020. This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereals, fish, potatoes, yam and other tubers, oils and fats, vegetables, and fruits.
On a MoM basis, the “Food” index was up by 0.94 per cent in March 2020, a 0.07 percentage point increase from 0.87 per cent recorded in February 2020. The average annual rate of change of the “Food” index for the twelve-month period ending March 2020, over the previous twelve-month average was 14.11 per cent, 0.13 percentage point from the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2020 (13.98) per cent.
On a YoY basis in March 2020, food inflation was highest in Sokoto at 16.81 per cent; Edo, 16.63 per cent and Ogun 16.39 per cent, while Jigawa with an index of 13.69 per cent; Bauchi, 13.40 per cent and Lagos at 13.06 per cent recorded the slowest rise in index.
Quite the contrary in the same month, on a MoM basis, food inflation was highest in the following states: Bayelsa (2.36 per cent), Kogi (2.18 per cent) and Kebbi (2.17 per cent). Kano (0.22 per cent) and Cross River (0.09 per cent) recorded the slowest inflation index while only Lagos recorded a price deflation or negative inflation of 0.51 per cent. This implies that there was a general decrease in the general price level of food in Lagos alone in March 2020.
Food prices were generally highest in Bayelsa, Kwara and Ogun while the same was generally lowest in Bauchi, Jigawa and Katsina
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