Mobile subscription growth rebounds after NCC purge

Mobile subscriptions in Nigeria rebounded in October 2024 to 157.32 million following months of decline.

However, the bounce back occurred after a Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) audit.

The commission’s audit removed 64.37 million lines from the national subscription base between March and September this year. While some of these lines were lost due to the completion of the Subscriber Identification Modules (SIMs) and the National Identification Number (NIN) linkage exercise, most stopped existing because of an NCC audit of the industry.

The NCC noted, “One Mobile Network Operator was found to have incorrectly reported around 40 million subscribers as active, despite the absence of any revenue-generating activity over a 90-day period. This was in direct violation of the Commission’s guidelines for determining active subscribers and led to an inflated report of the operator’s subscriber base, thereby skewing industry statistics.”

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A breakdown of the numbers revealed that MTN’s subscriber base declined by 4.53 percent to 78.09 million in the period, Airtel fell by 15.17 percent to 53.75 million, Glo slumped by 69.20 percent to 19.15 million, while 9mobile decreased by 68.82 percent to 11.66 million.

However, subscription numbers have begun to pick up, with 2.69 million new lines registered in one month, pushing total numbers to 157.32 million in October 2024. MTN’s subscriber base rose to 80.38 million, Glo declined to 19.11 million, 9mobile fell to 3.39 million, while Airtel rose to 54.45 million.

This growth pushed the country’s internet usage to an all-time high of 870,398.28 terabytes (TB) as of October 2024, a 28.9 percent increase from the 675,250.54 TB reported in the same period last year.

Mobile internet subscriptions reached 134 million in October after falling to 132.41 million in September from 163.89 million in March. Broadband penetration rebounded to 42.24 percent from 41.56 percent in September.

The 4G continues to be the dominant network in Nigeria, capturing 46.27 percent of the market. This was followed by 2G (42 percent), 3G (9.40 percent), and 2.33 percent.

Smartphone Impact

Nigeria’s internet subscription growth has been fuelled by the increase in smartphone penetration, which has been driven by entry-level Chinese phones.

Nigeria’s smartphone market grew by one percent in the third quarter of 2024 because of the naira’s depreciation, which fell by over 60 percent between January and September 2024.

Arnold Ponela, a senior research analyst at International Data Corporation, explained that Nigeria’s smartphone market recorded growth in the first quarter, fuelled by the success of Transsion brands and Xiaomi. “Nigeria saw robust growth fueled by the success of Transsion brands and Xiaomi, particularly in the entry-level segment, which significantly boosted shipments,” the analyst said.

Access to Mobile Internet

Despite this growth in subscription figures and internet usage, 120 million Nigerians lack access to mobile internet, according to GSMA, the global body for telcos. Gaps in digital infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, coupled with the high cost of smartphones, have left millions excluded from the digital wave.

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The industry body highlighted that these 120 million Nigerians are part of the more than 3.1 billion people in the world who do not use mobile internet—and likely don’t use the internet at all—despite coverage being where they live.

“Mobile is the primary — in some cases, only — way most access the internet in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Mobile accounted for 84 percent of broadband connections in 2023,” GSMA said.

Closing this gap is crucial, especially as mobile subscriptions begin a resurgence upward, according to Adeolu Ogunbanjo, national president of the National Association of Telecoms Subscribers.