Climate change is increasingly becoming one of the most significant environmental challenges of our time, profoundly impacting global weather patterns, including flooding. Tellingly, flooding is among the leading climatic threats to people’s livelihoods, affecting development prospects worldwide with the tendency to also reverse years of progress in poverty reduction and development.
Nigerians are no strangers to flooding. Annual rainfall is a common phenomenon with attendant consequences left in its wake. In some parts of the nation, flooding is an annual event. But the intensity varies from one year to the next. In some years, the vents are minimal; in others, they can be devastating. The 2024 floods have caused massive damage, reminiscent of the catastrophic effects of 2012 and 2022. Twelve years ago, more than 7.7 million people in 32 out of 36 states were affected by massive flooding. The 2022 episode surpassed the devastation of the 2012 catastrophe, killing over 600 people, injuring thousands of individuals, and requiring medical attention while displacing more than 2 million people in 27 states.
“Overall, a combination of natural conditions and inadequate planning, infrastructure, and governance contribute to the frequent flooding in Nigeria.”
Understanding the flooding patterns in Nigeria
Flooding in Nigeria has become more frequent and severe in recent years, exacerbated by climate change. Globally, discussions on climate challenges and climate risk mitigation strategies have long taken centre stage, with more than 1.81 billion people facing significant risk worldwide. Nigeria, with its diverse climatic zones, is not exempt from these effects. The nation has witnessed devastating floods that have displaced millions, destroyed homes, and caused billions of naira in damage. The 2022 flooding episode destroyed more than 200,000 homes, with circa 90,000 homes underwater.
There are three common types of flooding, but in Nigeria, they are interrelated because the peaks of all three often coincide seasonally. One is river flooding, also known as fluvial flooding, which occurs when rivers overflow their banks, as was the case in 2022 when the Lagdo dam in Cameroon happened. The second is flash flooding or pluvial flooding, which occurs due to intense, heavy rain, and coastal floods, often called storm surges, which occur when water from the marine environment submerges low-lying adjoining lands.
Flooding in Nigeria is driven by both natural and human factors. Natural causes include excessive rainfall, terrain, and soil characteristics. Human activities such as poor environmental planning, housing development in flood-prone areas, deforestation, improper waste disposal, and weak policy enforcement exacerbate the problem. Additionally, the construction of dams and upstream land use reduce river discharges in the Niger Delta, contributing to flooding. Climate change, with its increased rainfall intensity and frequency, further worsens the situation. Overall, a combination of natural conditions and inadequate planning, infrastructure, and governance contribute to the frequent flooding in Nigeria.
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The devastations
The situation remains dire! On July 4, 2024, the Federal Government, through the Minister of Water Resources, Prof. Joseph Utsev, in a media briefing, alerted Nigerians that river flooding is likely to adversely affect 18 states, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. According to the minister, from the end of July 2024, flooding is expected from major rivers such as the Niger and Benue, further emphasising the need for interventions to mitigate the impact.
On Wednesday, July 11, in Lagos, torrential rain that began in the early hours of the day submerged cars and houses, leaving many commuters and workers stranded in many parts of the metropolis. Furthermore, recent torrential rains have plunged Nigeria into a state of emergency, with 21 local government areas across 10 states and the FCT submerged under floodwaters in the days thereafter.
The discussion on flooding challenges and climate risk mitigation strategies has long taken centre stage. However, if left unchecked, critical sectors such as agriculture, oil and gas, transport, and solid minerals are likely to be hardest hit.
Agricultural expansion challenges
The 2022 floods wreaked havoc on infrastructure, housing, food security, and health services. An estimated 45.3 percent of homes were damaged, and 49 percent of households faced food insecurity. Notably, the agricultural sector’s growth has remained constrained, failing to recover from the 2022–2023 and 2023–2024 floods. The sector’s growth has remained below 1 percent between 2022 and Q1 2024.
Agriculture suffered immensely, with 95 percent of crop-farming households and 76 percent of non-crop activities impacted. Non-farm businesses were also hit hard, with 91.3 percent experiencing adverse effects, including a total business loss of 52 percent. The slow recovery process saw only 44.8 percent of households reporting recovery from the flood’s impact, with agricultural recultivation lagging.
Souring food inflation
Over the years, food insecurity, and by extension food inflation, has become a major source of worry. Food inflation ballooned to 40.8 percent in June, 2024 from 17.13 percent in January 2022 as seen below.
Infrastructure deficit widening
It is true that infrastructure is a key indicator for investors when funnelling investment into a nation. Nigeria needs an investment in the north of $2.3 trillion over the next 30 years to close its infrastructural gap, as contained in the reviewed National Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP 2020–2023). The plan further claimed that the nation must spend $150 billion annually to achieve such a target. However, flooding remains a persistent issue, causing extensive damage to houses, power, and energy infrastructure, as well as roads, which exacerbates logistics and transport challenges. With flooding, therefore, the current infrastructural gap, which currently hovers below the IMF’s 70 percent benchmark, is likely to widen.
GDP growth suffers a wallop
The widespread impact of flooding on businesses, jobs, infrastructure, logistics, household income, investment activities, and service provision has significantly hindered growth and development. While the government aspires to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030, this goal may remain elusive if bottlenecks like flooding are not effectively addressed.
Floods affect more people globally than any other natural hazard. They can cause widespread devastation that can displace people, damage property and critical public infrastructure, and ultimately result in the loss of life. And, as the planet continues to warm up due to climate change, the intensity and frequency of flooding are likely to increase.
Future strategies and recommendations
The rising frequency and intensity of flooding pose serious threats to lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure, necessitating immediate and strategic responses. To mitigate the impact of climate change-induced flooding, Nigeria must adopt infrastructure adaptation strategies, which include efforts to improve urban planning and drainage systems that are pivotal in mitigating flood risks. Implementing eco-friendly drainage solutions such as vegetated swales and permeable pavements can enhance water absorption and reduce runoff, thereby mitigating flood impacts in urban areas.
Similarly, promoting flood-resilient housing designs is essential for minimising flood damage. Elevated structures, flood-resistant building materials, and proper foundation engineering can mitigate the impact of floods on infrastructure and communities. Public awareness campaigns play a crucial role in advocating for these resilient practices and fostering community preparedness.
The construction of flood barriers such as floodwalls, levees, and embankments along rivers and coastlines designed to withstand extreme weather and rising water levels can help protect vulnerable areas from floodwater.
Lastly, planting trees and restoring forests can help mitigate the effects by absorbing excess rainfall and reducing surface runoff. The forest acts as a natural buffer, slowing down the movement of water and reducing flood risks.
The impact of climate change on flooding patterns in Nigeria is a pressing issue that requires immediate and sustained action. By adopting infrastructure adaptation strategies and implementing robust policies, Nigeria can build resilience to climate-induced floods. Collaborative efforts between the government, private sector, and communities are essential to safeguarding lives, protecting infrastructure, and ensuring sustainable development in the face of a changing climate. Addressing these challenges head-on will not only mitigate flood risks but also contribute to the overall well-being and prosperity of the nation.
Muhammad is a research and data analyst at BusinessDay Intelligence. He has over seven years of quality analytical experience on issues related to the economy, finance, and human capital development.
