Nigeria’s consumer price accelerated to at least a near-three-decade high in April at 33.69 percent, which has stiffened spending power and resulted in a cost of living crisis. The central bank chief said the country’s headline inflation is expected to decrease later in the year.
Meanwhile, the US consumer price index saw a mild decline from 3.5 percent in March to 3.4 percent in April. Analysts expect the figure to rise marginally as the world’s largest economy battles with the scourge of inflation.
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Monday, June 10
NBS to release rail transportation data
The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the rail transportation report for the first three months of 2024.
In the last quarter of 2023, revenue from passengers stood at N1.06 billion, revenue from goods and cargo was at N423 million, and revenues from other receipts stood at N393 million.
The total revenue generated from Nigeria’s railway transport system stood at N6.07 billion in 2023. This is an 8.5 percent increase from the N5.5 billion recorded in 2022.
The total number of passengers for the year was 2,182,388 compared to 3,212,948 in 2022, while the volume of goods and cargo was 317,244 compared to 157,024 compared to 2022.
Tuesday June 11
OPEC: Monthly Oil Market Report 2023
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release its monthly oil market report on Thursday.
Nigeria experienced a continuous decline each month since hitting 1,426,574 bpd in January 2024, due to oil theft and the high cost of production, until April, when it saw a surge in production.
Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production rose to 1.28 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) disclosed.
This is even as the country reclaims the top position as Africa’s biggest producer.
The current output signifies a 4.07 percent increase from the 1.23 million bpd recorded in March, also indicating the first month-on-month production growth in the year.
But when information obtained from secondary sources is considered, OPEC maintained that Nigeria produced 1.35 million bpd in April 2024, indicating a 3.6 percent drop from 1.40 million bpd in the preceding month of March.
“The central bank chief said the country’s headline inflation is expected to decrease later in the year.”
This showed that despite the battle against pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and illegal refining, Nigeria’s output, which was benchmarked at 1.70 million bpd, including condensate, and $77.96 per barrel in the nation’s 2024 budget, remains relatively low.
Read also: Food inflation surges 59% in low, middle-income countries – World Bank
Wednesday June 12
US to release May inflation figure
The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics will be releasing the country’s inflation figures on Wednesday.
In April, the Consumer Price Index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased to 3.4 percent from a year ago and to 0.3 percent for the month, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.
The monthly inflation rate decreased from 0.4 percent to 0.3 percent month-on-month.
The cost of shelter, which includes rent, increased 0.4 percent for the third straight month. Gasoline prices shot up 2.8 percent. These two categories contributed over 70 percent of the increase in the CPI. Food prices were unchanged. Prices at the supermarket fell 0.2 percent, with eggs dropping 7.3 percent. Meat, fish, fruits, and vegetables, as well as nonalcoholic beverages, were also cheaper.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items.
The central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.
Saturday, June 15, 2024
NBS to release May’s inflation report
The National Bureau of Statistics will be releasing May inflation figures on Saturday.
Analysts at Afrinvest Consulting Ltd. project that May’s headline inflation should rise slightly faster to 2.4 percent month-on-month, which translates to 34.3 percent year-on-year.
The country’s consumer price index rose from 33.20 percent in March to 33.69 percent in April for the 16th consecutive time.
Read also: Nigeria’s business activity rises to 4-month high as inflation eases
While the inflation rate increased by 11.47 percentage points year-on-year compared to the 22.22 percent it stood last April, it decelerated month-on-month by 0.73 percent.
Inflation has continued to rise due to high energy costs, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and persistent insecurity concerns in the country, which are affecting agricultural activities and pushing food inflation up the roof.
To fight inflation, Olayemi Cardoso, the governor of the central bank, has again hiked the country’s benchmark interest rate by a combined 750 basis points to 26.25 percent from 18.75 percent last July.
The CBN is dishing out inflationary targeting measures to rein in inflation to 21 percent by the end 2024.
Though the Financial Derivatives Company had predicted that inflation would peak in May or June, it noted that a decline is certain after the wage review by the federal government.
Naira to stabilise at N1,350 – 1,450 against USD
Nigeria’s naira is expected to moderate around N1,350 to N1,450 per US dollar as the local currency continues to struggle to strengthen against the greenback.
Following the central bank’s rate hike in May, the naira jumped to a one-month high of N1,173.88 but couldn’t hold on to its gains before it began to plummet.
The naira was quoted at N1,476/$ in the official market, while it closed flat on the street at N1,495/$ as of Thursday.
The naira depreciation was attributed to increased demand for dollars amid a supply shortage.
Bismarck Rewane, the chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company, has predicted that the exchange rate will stabilise around 1,350–1,450 per US dollar in the next 12 months.
