In a bustling Nigerian market, a mother carefully counts her naira notes, hesitant as she looks at the rising prices of staples like rice, beans, and yams. Her dilemma mirrors the daily struggles of millions of Nigerians grappling with the twin challenges of food inflation and food insecurity. Food inflation—the persistent rise in the cost of food—has become a defining feature of Nigeria’s economic landscape, forcing families to stretch their incomes while compromising on nutrition. On the other hand, food insecurity, rooted in agricultural production and distribution disruptions, deepens the crisis, leaving households vulnerable to hunger and poverty.
Many analysts attribute Nigeria’s soaring food inflation, which rose sharply from 25.25 percent in June 2023 to a record 40.87 percent in June 2024, to the country’s worsening food insecurity. Despite implementing aggressive monetary and fiscal measures to rein in runaway inflation, progress has been sluggish. By November, the consumer price index had climbed to 34.6 percent, with food inflation reaching 39.93 percent, setting a multi-decade high and underscoring that the fight against rising prices remains an uphill battle.
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For a nation where food accounts for a substantial share of household expenditures, the stakes are high. These challenges ripple through the economy, contributing to high overall inflation rates, shrinking household purchasing power, and widening inequality. Addressing food inflation and insecurity is not just about stabilising prices—it’s about ensuring the dignity and well-being of citizens while fostering sustainable economic growth.
Dynamics of Food Inflation in Nigeria
Food inflation in Nigeria is more than just an economic statistic—it is a stark reminder of the daily struggles faced by millions of households striving to put food on their tables, catalysed largely by the food insecurity phenomenon. In a similar vein, food security has become a global policy issue, with the rising cost of food prices worldwide. Between 2019 and 2021, the global population of undernourished people rose by approximately 126 million, leading key international organisations, including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to declare a new global challenge: the food security crisis. The prevalence of undernourishment (PoU)—which measures the share of the population consuming less than the minimum caloric threshold—spiked sharply during the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020, when global real GDP contracted by 2.9 percent, the steepest decline since the Great Depression.
Over the years, food inflation has remained a persistent challenge, with historical trends highlighting a steady rise in prices driven by systemic inefficiencies. From supply chain disruptions to rising production costs, currency depreciation, and heavy reliance on imports, the dynamics of food inflation in Nigeria reflect deeper structural issues that require urgent and coordinated action.
Although the worst of the recession passed, food inflation surged in 2021 and 2022 due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with domestic food prices rising by an average of 19 percent. Despite this, the global PoU stabilised in 2022 alongside a cumulative 10 percent increase in real-world GDP over the same period. These trends indicate that recent income fluctuations have had a more pronounced impact on food insecurity than food inflation, highlighting the critical role of economic stability in addressing global hunger.
“Addressing food inflation and insecurity is not just about stabilising prices—it’s about ensuring the dignity and well-being of citizens while fostering sustainable economic growth.”
At the national level, food inflation is a major contributor to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), amplifying overall inflationary pressures and complicating economic recovery efforts. The impact of these rising costs reverberates across the economy, eroding purchasing power, pushing more families below the poverty line, and exacerbating inequality. For households where food expenses account for a significant share of income, this inflationary pressure translates into tough choices: skipping meals, compromising on nutrition, or cutting back on essential non-food expenses like healthcare and education.
The surge in food inflation comes at a time when crop harvests were expected to ease the prices of essential commodities, indicating that the worst may still lie ahead. As a result, many agencies, including the WFP and FAO, have warned of an impending food crisis in many parts of the country. The situation could further deteriorate toward the end of the first quarter of 2025 as the planting season approaches, adding more pressure to already strained food supplies. In the latest report by Cadre Harmonise, about 33.1 million Nigerians are likely to suffer from acute food insecurity in 2025, up from 31.8 million in 2024. The Cadre Harmonisé, a biannual analysis led by the Nigerian government in collaboration with the United Nations, regional technical agencies, and NGOs, has highlighted a severe nutrition crisis in Nigeria. According to the report, 5.4 million children and 800,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting, with 1.8 million children facing Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) requiring urgent treatment.
The report attributes the escalating food shortages to a combination of factors, including triple-digit food price increases, the aftermath of devastating floods, and 15 years of insurgency in the northeast. These challenges have compounded the nation’s food insecurity, putting millions of vulnerable individuals at heightened risk.
Food insecurity as the driver
Food insecurity and food inflation are two sides of the same coin, each exacerbating the other in a cycle that impacts millions of Nigerians. At its core, food insecurity stems from disruptions in agricultural production caused by widespread insecurity, climate shocks, and structural inefficiencies. In key agricultural zones, particularly in the Northeast and North Central regions, persistent insurgencies have displaced farmers, restricted access to arable land, and disrupted market operations. Additionally, unpredictable weather patterns—ranging from droughts to devastating floods—further erode agricultural productivity, leaving farmers with reduced yields and communities with diminished food supplies.
Compounding these issues are systemic challenges like low agricultural productivity and inadequate infrastructure. Outdated farming methods, limited access to quality inputs, poor storage facilities, and inefficient transportation networks further hinder the movement of produce from farms to markets, resulting in waste and elevated costs. As food supplies dwindle, shortages inevitably drive up prices, creating inflationary pressures that ripple through the economy.
In Nigeria, the effects of food insecurity are acutely felt in agricultural zones such as the Middle Belt, known as the nation’s food basket. Despite its potential, this region struggles to maintain consistent production due to security risks and infrastructure gaps. The resulting supply deficits contribute significantly to food inflation, disproportionately affecting vulnerable households. Addressing food insecurity is thus essential—not only to alleviate hunger but also to stabilise food prices and foster economic resilience. By enhancing security, investing in modern agricultural practices, and improving infrastructure, Nigeria can break this cycle and move toward sustainable food systems that ensure affordability and accessibility for all.
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BDI commentary
Yet, within these challenges lies an opportunity for transformation. By investing in agricultural infrastructure, addressing supply chain bottlenecks, and prioritising local production over imports, Nigeria can not only reduce food inflation but also build a resilient and self-sustaining food system. The path to stabilising food prices requires bold, inclusive policies that empower farmers, stabilise the naira, and ensure equitable access to resources. In tackling food inflation, Nigeria can unlock the potential for shared prosperity, offering hope to millions and paving the way for a brighter, more secure future. Tackling these issues requires both immediate action to ease inflationary pressures and long-term strategies to build a resilient food system, capable of feeding a growing population and supporting Nigeria’s broader development goals.
Addressing Nigeria’s twin challenges of food inflation and food insecurity requires a delicate balance between immediate relief measures and long-term sustainable solutions. Immediate actions, such as targeted subsidies for agricultural inputs, food assistance programs, and interventions to stabilise the naira, are essential to ease the burden on vulnerable households. These measures can provide short-term relief, ensuring that families can access essential food items despite rising costs. However, relying solely on quick fixes risks perpetuating the underlying issues that drive food inflation and insecurity.
Long-term solutions, on the other hand, focus on building a resilient food system through investments in modern agricultural practices, infrastructure development, and enhanced security in farming regions. These initiatives address the root causes of supply shortages, creating an environment where food is abundant, affordable, and accessible. The trade-off lies in balancing the urgency of immediate interventions with the slower, more systemic changes required for sustainable impact. However, synergies exist: for instance, policies that support local food production in the short term—such as subsidised inputs or credit access for farmers—can also contribute to long-term productivity and market stability.
By aligning short-term and long-term priorities, Nigeria can simultaneously address the pressing needs of its population while laying the foundation for a food-secure and inflation-stable future. A coordinated approach that combines immediate relief with structural reforms ensures that short-term gains are not undermined by persistent vulnerabilities, enabling the country to break the cycle of food inflation and insecurity.
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