1) Introduction
Nigeria is a country endowed with vast natural resources, including petroleum, natural gas, and expansive arable land, positioning it as one of Africa’s most significant economies and investment hubs. As Africa’s largest economy, the World Bank noted in 2023 that Nigeria is a beacon for investment opportunities, particularly in agriculture, which plays a central role in driving economic growth. However, despite these strengths, Nigeria’s food security is under significant strain, with projections showing that millions more will face acute food insecurity by 2025. This crisis directly affects the progress and attainment of Sustainable Development Goals, SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and has broader implications for SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). This policy brief assesses the drivers of Nigeria’s food insecurity, provides the projections for 2025, and outlines policy recommendations to address the crisis.
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2) Current situation and key drivers of food insecurity
Nigeria’s food insecurity is projected to worsen significantly, with estimates indicating that by mid-2024, around 26.5 million Nigerians could face acute hunger, a steep increase from 18.6 million in late 2023. This growing crisis is attributed to multiple, interwoven factors, such as persistent conflicts, especially in the northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, which have displaced millions, disrupted agricultural activities, and restricted food access. Rising inflation and elevated import costs further strain the economy, rendering essential staples unaffordable for many households. Thus, climate-related challenges such as recurring floods and droughts further exacerbate the vulnerability of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, undermining productivity, particularly among rural farming communities.
Amid this, the Nigerian economy has experienced both growth and decline in recent years, with fluctuations in gross domestic product (GDP). Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that GDP growth remained resilient at 3.46 percent in Q4 2023 but declined to 3.19 percent by Q2 2024, strained by inflationary pressures, and eventually reached a 28-year high of 32.7 percent in September 2024. Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have also destabilised food prices globally, amplifying the pressure on food security domestically. Additionally, security challenges in agricultural regions, including violent conflicts and banditry, have disrupted farming activities. In 2023 alone, the World Development Indicator noted that over 1.6 million hectares of farmland were lost to flooding, diminishing food availability and intensifying the pressure on prices.
“However, despite these strengths, Nigeria’s food security is under significant strain, with projections showing that millions more will face acute food insecurity by 2025.”
With agriculture playing a central role in Nigeria’s economy, contributing significantly to national output and providing a large share of employment. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicate that since 1990, agriculture has consistently accounted for over 20 percent of Nigeria’s annual GDP, averaging around 25 percent, which surpasses sectors such as mining (12 percent), manufacturing (8 percent), and construction (3 percent). Approximately 70 percent of Nigerian households (around 140 million people) are actively involved in agriculture, either directly or indirectly, as indicated by the National Bureau of Statistics.
However, the agricultural sector’s performance has been stalled by inadequate access to financial and credit facilities, which limits the capacity of farmers to improve productivity and leverage modern farming techniques. The demand for finance in agriculture is estimated at N8 trillion, but only a small fraction of this (approximately 6 percent), as noted by CBN, is met by financial institutions.
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Figure 2: Sectoral distribution of loans and advances (billion Naira)
“Thus, climate-related challenges such as recurring floods and droughts further exacerbate the vulnerability of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, undermining productivity, particularly among rural farming communities.”
3) Projections of food insecurity in Nigeria by 2025
If current trends persist, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) warned that food insecurity in Nigeria is expected to worsen significantly. Analysis conducted by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projected that by 2025, as many as 33 million Nigerians may experience severe food shortages due to compounded economic, environmental, and security factors. The frequency and severity of extreme weather events, coupled with persistent security threats, suggest a bleak outlook for agricultural productivity. Without intervention, domestic food production will likely fall short of demand, pushing more Nigerians toward food dependency and poverty. Furthermore, the economic volatility from high inflation and currency devaluation is expected to drive further cost increases, making food inaccessible to vulnerable populations.
4) A cause for alarm: An urgent call to action on food security and policy intervention
To avert a looming food crisis, Nigeria must prioritise policy interventions tailored towards improving the agricultural base, ranging from:
Investment in climate-resilient agriculture innovation: Climate-smart practices are essential to building resilience in Nigeria’s agriculture. Investment in drought-resistant crops, improved irrigation, and climate-adaptive farming techniques can reduce vulnerability to extreme weather. The government should encourage partnerships to boost climate adaptation resources within the agricultural sector.
State-level policy alignment for food security: States like Kano, Benue, and Niger are known for producing staple crops like maize, yam, and rice. Aligning the Ministry of Agriculture’s policies with state governments can help tailor interventions.
Improving security in agricultural regions: Enhancing security in farming areas is paramount. Thus, addressing banditry and conflict in agricultural zones will enable farmers to safely cultivate and distribute their produce, stabilizing food supplies. The government should focus on community-based security initiatives to protect agricultural communities.
Strengthening food supply chains and storage infrastructure: Post-harvest losses and logistical inefficiencies contribute to food scarcity. Nigeria can improve food security by expanding storage infrastructure, creating more efficient transport networks, and supporting local food processing industries. These efforts would help stabilize prices and reduce dependence on food imports.
Economic and social support for vulnerable populations: Social protection programmes can provide a buffer against food insecurity. Targeted food assistance, subsidies for essential goods, and inflation-linked income support would alleviate immediate hardships for the most affected households. Aligning monetary policies with food security goals could help mitigate the adverse effects of inflation on food prices.
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6) Conclusion and recommendation
As it stands, without immediate, well-coordinated action, food insecurity could reach unprecedented levels by 2025, threatening millions of lives. Although international agencies like the World Food Programme (WFP) provide crucial food aid and financial support, the resources available are insufficient to meet the escalating demand. Without substantial intervention and long-term strategies, millions of Nigerians may face increasingly severe food shortages. Building resilience in the agricultural sector through climate-adaptive practices, improving security in farming areas, and strengthening food supply infrastructure are essential steps. The government, in collaboration with the private sector and international partners, must prioritise these efforts to safeguard Nigeria’s food future. Through focused and sustained intervention, Nigeria can mitigate the risks of food insecurity, laying the groundwork for a more stable and prosperous nation.
Prof. Joseph Nnanna; Chief Economist, Development Bank of Nigeria.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author; they do not necessarily reflect Development Bank of Nigeria policy.)
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