Disaggregating the latest NBS data for policy recalibration

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is a vital foundation for evidence-based policymaking in Nigeria, offering a reliable lens through which the nation’s socio-economic realities are examined. Established by the Statistics Acts of 2007, following the merging of the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) and Nigeria Data Bank (NDB), the agency plays a pivotal role in shaping the nation’s economic and social policy direction. Its data is essential for policymakers, researchers, and businesses to make informed decisions. Since 2008, the NBS has released a series of reports that provide valuable insights into the country’s economic and social landscape. These reports cover various indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rates, health statistics, and other social indices. Recent reports on 2024 Q3 GDP growth, unemployment rates, and the General Household Survey (GHS) highlight the progress and challenges in Nigeria’s economic and social development.

Disaggregating these datasets is crucial to uncovering the complexities masked by aggregate figures. For instance, while GDP data might show growth in specific sectors, unemployment figures may reveal persistent labour market struggles, particularly among youth and women. Similarly, insights from the GHS can shed light on household vulnerabilities, such as food insecurity, inflationary pressures, or educational disparities, which are central to Nigeria’s developmental aspirations.

Overview of NBS latest data

On November 25, 2024, the amiable statistical bureau released two socio-economic indicators—the unemployment rate and Q3 2024 GDP figures—in addition to the GHS data released the Friday prior.

Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.46 percent year-on-year in real terms in Q3 2024, surpassing the 2.54 percent growth recorded in Q3 2023 and the 3.19 percent in Q2 2024. This performance was primarily driven by the services sector, which expanded by 5.19 percent and contributed 53.58 percent to the GDP, reinforcing its dominant role in the economy. The industry sector showed notable improvement with a 2.18 percent growth, compared to 0.46 percent in Q3 2023, while agriculture grew modestly at 1.14 percent. In nominal terms, the aggregate GDP stood at ₦71.13 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year nominal growth of 17.26 percent. These figures highlight the continued resilience of the services sector and the gradual recovery of the industrial sector within Nigeria’s broadly classified oil and non-oil economy.

In a similar vein, the latest unemployment data from the body reported a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent in Q2 2024, down from 5.3 percent in Q1 2024 and 5.0 percent in Q3 2023, suggesting an improvement in labour conditions. Self-employment remained dominant, representing 85.6 percent of total employment, an increase from 84 percent in the prior quarter, while informal employment rose slightly to 93 percent, underscoring the economy’s dependence on informal jobs. Additionally, workforce participation grew, with the Labour Force Participation Rate reaching 79.5 percent, and the Employment-to-Population ratio improving to 76.1 percent from 73.2 percent in Q1 2024. Despite these figures, the heavy reliance on informal jobs raises questions about job quality and economic stability, posing challenges for policymakers aiming to transition to more sustainable employment solutions.

From the GHS Panel Wave 5 data, it was reported that about two-thirds, approximating 65.8 percent of Nigerian households, were unable to afford healthy, nutritious, or preferred foods within the last 30 days, reflecting widespread food insecurity. Additionally, 63.8 percent of households ate limited types of food due to financial constraints, and 62.4 percent worried about having insufficient food. Severe outcomes include 12.3 percent of households experiencing at least one member going without food for an entire day and 20.8 percent resorting to borrowing food or seeking help from friends or relatives.

 “Food insecurity was more prevalent in the southern zones, with the South-South zone recording the highest rates across five of eight key indicators, including skipped meals.”

Food insecurity was more prevalent in the southern zones, with the South-South zone recording the highest rates across five of eight key indicators, including skipped meals. Conversely, North Central had the lowest rates in six of the indicators. Female-headed households were disproportionately affected, with 72.2 percent unable to afford nutritious food compared to 64 percent of male-headed households. The largest disparity was in running out of food due to lack of money, where 55.2 percent of female-headed households were affected, compared to 41.3 percent of male-headed households, revealing a significant gender gap in food security. These figures highlight urgent challenges requiring targeted policy interventions to address hunger and inequality.

Disaggregated analysis

Sectoral Analysis

Sectors driving growth:

Recent NBS data for Q3 GDP highlights the service sector, particularly ICT and financial services, as key drivers of growth. Agriculture also shows resilience, contributing significantly to GDP despite challenges in mechanisation and access to financing.

Lagging sectors and barriers:

The oil and gas sector continues to underperform, dragged down by production issues and global market volatility. Manufacturing struggles with high input costs due to inflation, foreign exchange shortages, and infrastructure gaps. These barriers underscore the need for targeted reforms in industrial policy and energy stabilisation.

Regional Disparities

Unemployment and income gaps:

The data reveal stark disparities, with northern regions experiencing higher unemployment and poverty rates compared to the south. For example, states like Zamfara and Sokoto report significantly lower economic activity compared to Lagos and Rivers, which benefit from higher urbanisation and industrialisation.

Policy implications:

Addressing these regional disparities requires state-level interventions such as improving agricultural value chains in the north and supporting tech hubs and SMEs in the south. Federal infrastructure projects must also prioritise underserved areas to foster balanced growth.

Demographic Trends

Youth and female unemployment rates:

Youth unemployment remains alarmingly high, exceeding 40 percent in many areas, while women face compounded challenges due to cultural and systemic barriers. Female participation in the workforce lags significantly, particularly in rural areas where informal labour dominates.

Household data correlation:

General Household Survey data show a direct correlation between unemployment and poor access to education and healthcare. Regions with higher youth unemployment also report elevated food insecurity, indicating the need for integrated social and economic policies to address these interlinked challenges.

BDI Commentary: Unpacking NBS data for effective policy adjustments

Unpacking the latest report is very crucial for policy recalibration, especially at a time when many people are doubting the efficacy and truism of the figures. Inclusive GDP figures and surface-level GDP numbers. The recent unemployment figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), based on a recalibrated methodology, have faced sharp criticism from the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and members of the organised private sector. While the revised approach aligns with International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards, it fails to capture the dire economic realities faced by Nigerians. By classifying anyone who worked as little as one hour in the past week for pay or profit as employed, the figures paint an overly optimistic picture that does not align with widespread poverty, business closures, and rising job losses. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria reports that 767 manufacturers shut down in 2023 alone, a stark contrast to claims of improving labour conditions.

This methodology masks the quality and sustainability of employment, particularly in a landscape dominated by informal jobs, many of which do not meet minimum wage standards or provide meaningful livelihoods. Questions arise about the validity of employment metrics when highly educated individuals are forced into precarious roles, such as commercial motorcycling, to survive. Furthermore, with GDP growth in key job-creating sectors like agriculture and manufacturing stagnating at 1.14 percent and 0.92 percent respectively in the last quarter, the claim of improved labor conditions rings hollow. Critics are calling for an overhaul of the metrics or parallel methodologies that consider meaningful earnings and the ability to meet basic living standards to reflect the true state of unemployment in Nigeria.

The latest NBS data offers valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic and social landscape. While the economy continues to grow, challenges such as evidence-driven unemployment, poverty, and inequality persist. To address these challenges, policymakers must implement evidence-based policies that prioritise inclusive growth, job creation, and social welfare. By leveraging the power of data, Nigeria can chart a path towards a more prosperous and equitable future.