The Nigeria’s political turf is expected to be hot this year as the country inches towards the next round of general election billed to hold in 2027. As usual, some states will be hotter than others depending on the political and economic importance attached to them, and some political dynamics. Although it is clearly two years before the 2027 general election, there will be a lot of activity pointing towards that year. This year will witness the off-cycle election in Anambra State; there would be a deluge of defection of politicians from smaller parties to bigger ones; appointment of new Independent National Election Commission (INEC) chairman, possible escalation of Rivers’ political crisis, and unfortunately, increase in the use of intemperate language by politicians.
Anambra off-cycle election
One of the major political activities that will take place this year is the off-season gubernatorial election inn Anambra State. The election already fixed for November 8, has since begun to cause adrenaline rise in some political actors in the state. While the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the party in power in the state, is doing everything possible to retain the leadership of the state, the opposition APC in control of the centre has since given APGA quit notice. The Chukwuma Soludo administration in Anambra would be taking the APC threat lightly at his own peril. The APC had pointed to its victory in Edo, where it sacked the PDP government to clinch victory. It has also pointed to Imo, Kogi, Ondo and Ekiti States where it tolerated no opposition to take over. The Anambra election is a test of how the people of the state have accepted the governance style of the professor-governor, or the bulldozing power of the APC. It is one election that Nigerians are eagerly waiting for, chiefly because, a victory for the broom party would mean a bold inroad into the South East geo-political zone that was seen as the domain of the PDP, until the arrival of Hope Uzodinma in Imo State.
Although other political parties, including the PDP, and the Labour Party (LP) would be contesting, the battle would essentially be between APGA and APC; the PDP can spring surprises depending on how ferocious it tackles its internal crisis before November.
PDP: To live or to die?
The year 2015 is a decisive year for the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It is a year that will determine whether the party will die a natural death or bounce back to reckoning. The umbrella political association has been going through terrible times since it lost power at the centre in 2015. The party has since been depleted, with many of its members and those that made it tick in the days gone by, emptying themselves into the All Progressives Congress (APC). The internal wrangling that denied the party superlative outing in the 2023 general election has not ebbed. The party has been oscillating from one problem to another. To remain alive and relevant, the party has to be intentional in confronting its greatest enemies and fears. The first test will come during its National Executive Council (NEC) meeting in the first quarter of this year. One of the greatest problems the party has had was leadership. It is expected that the NEC meeting would lay such problem to rest by enthroning a fresh and vibrant leadership that could possibly lead the party to reclaim its lost estate.
Appointment of new INEC chairman
This year, a new chairman of the INEC would be appointed as the current boss, Mahmood Yakuba would be retiring in December after serving two-tenures of 10 years. Yakubu was first appointed in 2015 after the exit of Professor Attahiru Jega. He was reappointed in October 2020 by the immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari, which was confirmed by the Senate in December of that year, for another five years. The manner of the appointment of a new INEC henchman will surely raise dust in the polity against the growing concern that those who are single-handedly appointed into such capacity by a sitting president are easily manipulated by those who appointed them. The classic case of “he who pays the piper calls the tune” that has been evident in the manner of operations of many who had been so appointed, has continued to generate controversy in Nigeria. How the appointment of the new chairman goes and who mounts the saddles will make headlines. The manner of appointment would also, either positively impact the nation’s democratic process or worsen it. So, it is going to be a critical event that would arouse more than a passing interest of many Nigerians.
Expect deluge of defections
Nigerian politicians are always on the move. They are rolling stones. Their loyalty to political party is always fleeting, and to the extent that the party can help them actualise their political ambitions. Many current politicians have been members of the leading political parties in Nigeria at different times and for the purpose of using such platforms as special-purpose vehicles, not for any ideological reason. As the country inches towards 2027, there will be alignment and realignment of forces. Nigerians would see many decampments by politicians. Those who feel that their political future is not guaranteed where they are at the moment, would “port” into other parties. Some governors on other parties’ platforms, may also move into the APC to seek a second term. Unlike in other climes, the Nigerian politician is not a loyal party man, but a fair-weather wayfarer, who sees a party as a platform to achieve an interest, and is ready to dump the party when such interest is not served.
Read also: Budget, tax reform bills top legislative agenda in 2025 – Bamidele
Recently, while commenting on the successful presidential election in Ghana, Mahmood Yakubu, chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), had commended the elected President John Mahama.
Yakubu said that Mahama had remained resolute and a member of one party without jumping from one party to the other.
“Rarely, in Ghana do you see people in Ghana moving from one party to another with every general election…It provides stability. It also provides their supporters (with) stability. So, there are people who have supported political parties for years. So, whether the party is in power or opposition, they stick to the political party,” Yakubu noted.
Rivers’ political impasse to escalate
This year, Rivers State will continue to make headlines as various interests compete for power control. All through 2024, the state boiled over, as political actors led by Governor Sim Fubara and his political godfather, Nyesom Wike were on each other’s jugular over the control of the state. It may seem that Abuja is not interested in what is happening in the state, but 2027 is on its mind. At some point this year, Abuja may unveil its thought on the state’s politics. As the APC pushes to add more states to its fold, one of its greatest dreams is to conquer Rivers. Apart from the political currency that Rivers brings to any party that has it in its kitty, the economy of the state and its huge revenues make other states green with envy. This is actually the crux of the matter. So, the political impasse, rather than abate, will continue, and may even escalate.
Tax Reform Bills
Although the Tax Reform Bill attracted lots of kicks last year, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has said that “it has come to stay.”
The bills generated serious controversies last year, particularly from the Northern part of the country. The President recently said he had sent out some emissaries to speak to the Northern leaders on the desirability of the reform. The bills include the Nigeria Tax Bill 2024, Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill.
The Northern Governors Forum (NGF) has vehemently opposed the bills, raising serious concerns about the proposed shift to a derivation-based model for Value Added Tax distribution, which they believe would disadvantage northern states and other less-industrialised regions. Governors Babagana Zulum, Bala Mohammed, and Abba Yusuf of Borno, Bauchi, and Kano states have been vocal critics of the bills in the North.
Whether the tax reform succeeds or otherwise, it will continue to grab newspaper headlines this year.
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