Phillip Isakpa
Some forecasters and doomsayers are predicting that the global downturn is likely to have a particular impact on the poor and vulnerable. In other words, there are particular political troubles ahead in disadvantaged (i.e. developing) countries. While this may or may not necessarily be true, as events are usually the result of complex and often arbitrary circumstances, one can see some correlation between global trends and socio-political disturbances. One need look no further than the troubles which broke out in a number of West African countries (Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso) last February which happened for the most part as a direct result of unexpectedly soaring food prices. But they did not happen mechanistically in every country.
Circumstances are bound to be particular, the product of cause and effect. For that reason one should not interpret the December 23 coup d état in Guinea as a portent of other military take-overs to come, despite the poor record of the sub-region over nearly fifty years. The wave of country-wide demonstrations in Guinea that climaxed in an indefinite general strike in the first part of 2007 had no relationship to global conditions. The basic hardships of inflation, shortages and unemployment that led to the protests (known by some Guineans as the intifada) were locally induced by the increasing mismanagement of the slowly crumbling regime of Lansana Conté, whose death was immediately followed by a successful coup. With the removal of the big man at the top, the edifice was ripe for pushing over.
Coups are drastic surgery for a diseased polity, and there are many cases where they have compounded the troubles they sought to ease. If diseased polity undoubtedly described Contés Guinea, and the chances of a successor regime of his cronies looked dismal, there are many who are still holding their breath to see how this coup develops. The decisions of the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to suspend Guinea from membership
were unavoidable, and in line with the firm outlawing of coups by the AU, operational since 1999. The suspensions have still been accompanied not just by urgent admonitions to the new National Development and Democracy Council (CNDD) to organise elections as soon as practicable, but a mechanism for constant contact with Conakry’s new rulers.
The application of rules has thus been accompanied by offers of sympathy and cooperation, perhaps in recognition of the expressions of support for the motives of the Guinea coup-makers from such diverse sources as President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal, Colonel Gaddafy of Libya and the former Nigerian ruler Ibrahim Babangida, who was a close friend of the late President Conté and had also been the ECOWAS mediator in Conakry in the political crisis of 2007.
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The Conakry coup-makers have been putting out contradictory signals which have caused neighbouring countries to be watchful, as it is a key country in a still fragile part of the sub-region that could affect recovery in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The new ruler of Guinea, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara has pledged a return to constitutional rule by the end of 2010, although for most of his neighbours as well as for the international community the calendar could be speeded up, even bearing in mind Guinea’s difficult socio-economic conditions, and the problems of preparing a level electoral playing field almost from scratch. The long-harassed political parties, while welcoming the apparent good intentions of the captains in power in Conakry, have also stressed they would prefer a shorter transition.
Some observers also worry that the captains have put eleven of their number into government, that none of the parties are there, and that a development-plus-anti-corruption agenda could divert from the main purpose of restoring civil rule. There are also worries that Captain Camara seems already to be enjoying power too much, and is certainly talking a lot. His expression of admiration of ATT, President Amadou Toumani Touré of Mali whose post-coup handover to elected civilians is still seen as a model, is nevertheless encouraging, as is his desire to have an international post when he leaves power with his mission accomplished.
Having generously accorded Lansana Conté a state funeral, the detention of his main associates and almost all the army top brass has also brought worries that a witch-hunt against the former regime could create further distractions, as well as engender new political tensions. Although the coup itself was bloodless, and generally well received by the public, it is as well to recall that military regimes, especially those that come to power as the result of conspiracies, often experience shakedowns among the coup makers. Thus neighbours and the whole sub-region would do well to be watchful. A firm programme for civilian rule complete with election date would bring great reassurance, as well as the international support that will be needed for the exploitation of Guinea’s undoubted huge potential. But the Guinean people themselves still hold the key.
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