• Monday, May 20, 2024
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Examining Lagos State GDP figures

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  While Nigerians await the state-by-state breakdown of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), it is great to see that the Lagos State government has gone ahead to calculate its own estimated GDP. The move by the state is not surprising considering it has been in the forefront of economic development in the country. The state currently has one of the best and most complete economic statistics in the country.

The state’s GDP figures released in September 2012 provide some interesting insights into the Lagos economy. The state has a GDP figure put in excess of N12 trillion or $81 billion as of 2010. Its economic size is about 35.6 percent of Nigeria’s 2010 GDP but a significant 62.3 percent of Nigeria’s non-oil GDP.

However, on the African continent, Lagos State GDP figures rank fourth below Cairo ($145 billion), Johannesburg ($110 billion), and Cape Town ($103 billion). The figures show that the Lagos State GDP is higher than 14 of the 51 states in the United States of America. It is also estimated to be bigger than the GDPs of 22 of the 27 states in Brazil, and higher than 42 individual states in Africa, including Kenya with a GDP of $66 billion, Ghana with a GDP of $61.97 billion, and Tanzania with a GDP of $58.44 billion.

Seven different sectors dominate economic activities in Lagos State, led by manufacturing which, interestingly, contributes 29.60 percent of the state’s GDP figures. Road transport follows closely contributing an average of 26.47 percent of economic activities in the state. Other sectors in order of dominance include building and construction (19.60 percent); wholesale and retail (8.39 percent); telecommunications (3.71 percent); financial institutions (3.51 percent); and real estate (2.01 percent). The seven sectors account for 93.39 percent of economic activities in the state.

The Lagos State Bureau of Statistics also breaks down the state’s GDP based on sectors. Livestock is the biggest economic activity in the agricultural sector. This is closely followed by forestry, and then fisheries which is about half the size of the livestock sector. Crop production is almost insignificant in the agricultural sector, contributing just 0.004 percent of economic activities.

Road transport is the giant in the room in the transportation sector in Lagos State, making up more than 90 percent of economic activities in the sector. The road transport sector is only slightly smaller than manufacturing. Manufacturing and road transport activities actually make up an average 56 percent of all economic activities taking place in Lagos. This explains the Lagos State government’s emphasis on road transport infrastructure within the state as both sectors actually feed on each other. The roads need manufacturing goods and passenger traffic while manufacturing needs the roads to move goods from production centres to the market.

The financial services sector of the Lagos State economy is dominated by financial institutions, with the insurance sector almost a negligible player in the sector. Insurance sector’s contribution to economic activities in Lagos State stands at just 0.30 percent compared to 3.51 percent by financial institutions. In the communications sector, telecommunications dominates, with broadcasting and postal services making marginal contribution (0.03 percent).

Under utilities, electricity dominates, but it contributes just an insignificant 0.47 percent of economic activities in Lagos State, a reflection of the challenges faced in the sector in the country. The contribution by the water sector is even more insignificant at just 0.03 percent. In a more ideal situation, these two sectors would be ranking among the highest contributors to economic activities because they are essential to modern living. Unfortunately, this is not the case here. The negligible contribution of these sectors hides the strong growth potential of the Lagos State economy if both sectors are repositioned to play their proper role in economic activities.

Currently, the NBS is compiling GDP figures for about six states of the federation. Ahead of the release of these figures, which was expected in March 2013, BusinessDay research will soon be releasing its report on the states of the Nigerian federation. The report is an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic environment and fiscal plans of Nigeria’s 36 states and Abuja. It shows what the states are going to spend and how they are going to spend it. It is also a deep analysis of the financial profile of each state, showing internal revenue projections and history, debt overhang, projections and sustainability, projected expenditure-to-consumption ratios, and major projects in each state.

Due to non-availability of the GDP figures for the 36 states and Abuja, BusinessDay Research will be using NBS figures on consumption patterns in the states as a proxy for GDP figures. The report is an invaluable guide to anyone seeking to do business with or in the states and also to state governments wanting to know how their expenditure plans and macroeconomic environment compare competitively with other states and to the needs of the states.

Note: If you want analysis or data on any company or any particular sector of the Nigerian economy or industry or have any other queries that BusinessDay Research Unit can help you with, kindly send a mail to [email protected]/en or call 08185193932. We can also help you with your confidential market surveys and competition analysis at a cost. 

 

ANTHONY OSAE-BROWN

Editor, BusinessDay Research Unit

[email protected]/en 

 

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