Middle East conflict drives fertiliser shortage, threatens Africa’s food security

…Experts urge farmers to bulk purchase or build fertiliser reserves to cushion against global supply shocks.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving a major fertiliser shortage across Africa and globally, pushing prices from about 500 dollars to over 700 dollars per tonne.

Experts warn that Africa’s food security could come under renewed pressure as uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global fertiliser trade flows. This is heightening the risk of food inflation and potential shortages of key staples such as maize, rice and wheat, according to reports.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), even a 10 percent reduction in fertiliser availability could lead to as much as a 25 percent decline in maize, rice and wheat output in sub-Saharan Africa. This, in turn, could trigger food inflation of up to 8 percent across the continent.

“The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is already affecting global supply chains, with fertiliser markets among the hardest hit,” Ayodele Ayowole, a policy analyst, noted.

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The disruption threatens access to critical inputs such as ammonia, urea, phosphate and sulphur, all essential for food production across sub-Saharan Africa. With about 80 percent of fertiliser in the region imported, largely at higher costs due to freight, financing and logistics, African farmers are especially exposed to global shocks.

Recent restrictions by China, one of the world’s largest fertiliser exporters, have compounded supply pressures, contributing to a 40 percent surge in urea prices. As global supply chains tighten, African farmers continue to bear the brunt of rising costs and limited availability.

“For many governments, fertiliser security is closely tied to food security, which is in turn linked to broader economic and social stability,” Martin Fregene, an analyst, noted.

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The crisis is particularly acute for smallholder farmers, who account for nearly 70 percent of food production in sub-Saharan Africa.

Unlike large commercial farms that can secure inputs in advance, smallholders often face restricted access to fertilisers or sharp price increases during supply disruptions, placing crop yields and rural livelihoods at risk.
Earlier this year, BusinessDay reported a possible spike in fertiliser prices and a ripple effect on food inflation if the Iran conflict persists.

The report followed Iran’s announcement of a ban on exports of food and agricultural products as tensions with Israel and the United States escalated.

The intensifying conflict is also threatening key fertiliser production hubs and global shipping routes, raising the risk of higher input costs and broader food inflation, according to FarmerProgress.

Data from the United Nations COMTRADE database shows that Iran exported fertilisers worth 169.11 million dollars to Nigeria in 2022. In 2025, Nigeria imported about 560,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser, with volumes projected to rise further in 2026.

Read Also: https://businessday.ng/agriculture/article/fertilizer-prices-may-spike-as-iran-bans-food-agricultural-exports/

 

What’s the way forward?
African policymakers are being urged to stockpile fertilisers and sell them at subsidised rates to farmers. Experts also stress the need for immediate interventions to cushion the shocks from the Iran conflict while building long-term resilience in fertiliser supply chains and food systems, according to recent reports by Al Jazeera.

“Africa need to strengthen market intelligence. Real time tracking of trade flows, shipping routes, and price trends helps policymakers anticipate disruptions. UN Trade and Development’s Strait of Hormuz ship traffic monitoring demonstrates how trade data can guide decisions before shortages escalate. Data sharing between regional institutions like those led by the African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership would allow countries to assess exposure and coordinate action,” the report stated.

“African governments and regional organisations need to coordinate regional procurement and buffer stocks. By pooling fertiliser demand, they can negotiate better prices and reduce the risk of export bans or freight spikes. Shared, commercial channel reserves can stabilise markets during shortages. Partnerships with Africa’s major fertiliser producers such as Morocco and Nigeria could help stabilise markets and limit panic buying,” the report added.