With the ‘gradual easing of lockdown’ expected to end on Monday (June 1), an analysis of projections by national leaders of some agricultural commodity producers has shown productivity this year could reduce by an average of up to 47.5 percent, as the COVID-19 induced lockdowns restricted farmers from engaging in different production activities.
Maize, Wheat, Soybean, Poultry have been projected to decline between 30 and 70 percent, whereas Rice and Cassava growers claim they do not expect any decline in output, and in fact, possible increments. While Rice farmers say the Inspector General of police gave them a special pass to farm, even enticing non-rice farmers to go into it, Cassava farmers say the attention being enjoyed from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) means capacity of farmers will be increased. For other commodities, the story is not the same.
Despite being classified as essential by President Muhamamdu Buhari in one of his national broadcasts, farmers and dealers of agricultural goods struggled through the period of lockdown, as security agents routinely declined to grant ease of passage. With farmers unable to access their farms, some that should have harvested during the months coinciding with the lockdown were unable to, while those that should have been preparing their land for the planting season were equally restricted.
Agriculture, being a time bound activity, meant those who failed to either harvest or prepare their land at the appropriate time, were at risk of falling behind in the next production cycle. Also, for those who may have had access to their farms, they could hardly get access to the required inputs such as seeds, fertilisers, and herbicides, implying they could do little or nothing on the farms.
Kabiru Ibrahim, national president, All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), had stressed during a webinar session by the Guild of Nigerian Agriculture Journalists (GNAJ) that COVID-19 is going to affect agricultural productivity in Nigeria. “Farmers are complaining of access to the farms, and there is difficulty in getting seeds and other inputs to locations where they are needed from locations where they are produced,” he said.
According to him, the country is likely going to record 65 percent productivity, due to planting activities starting late in some areas, farmers struggling with access to the farms, access to the seeds and other inputs. “We are going to be very lucky to be able to meet the demands of food this year,” he said.
Asked if the projection has been revised from when initially stated a few weeks ago, Ibrahim told Agribusiness Insight, “We can still assume the same 65 percent (productivity) due to the encouragement by the President’s call and enthusiasm! The reality will still depend on the Rains!”
Maize – 30 percent decline
While maize farmers had a projection of 25 million tons to be produced this year, due to COVID-19 challenges, there is a realisation that achieving the target has now become almost impossible.
“If we are able to get 70 percent out of what we are projecting, we thank God,” said Bello Abubakar Funtua, president, Maize Association of Nigeria. “The challenges are many, especially accessibility for farmers, therefore it is just for the government to look into this sector again very well and ensure farmers can go freely to their farms as well as other technical and service providers.”
Soybean – 40 percent decline
This year, Soybean farmers had projected to produce at least 100,000 tonnes of the grain. However, as most of the farmers were relying on funding through the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme (ABP) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), they could not get enrolled for Bank Verification Number (BVN) which is a prerequisite for them to get access to loan from the CBN.
“This has greatly reduced the population of our Farmers that are going to farm this year and is going to reduce our production by almost 50 percent,” said Nafiu Abdu, president, Soybean Farmers Association of Nigeria (SOFAN) in an earlier estimate. Reached to confirm if this position is still consistent, Abdu said the association is hoping to have a slight increase as it intends submitting additional farmers’ names to the CBN which if approved may push production up to 60 percent.
Wheat – 70 percent decline
For Wheat farmers, there is expectation that even if there would be much production, it is not going to be more than 30 percent because the harvesting calendar was substantially altered by the pandemic. This implies 70 percent of cultivated wheat is expected to be lost this year alone. This season, Wheat farmers cultivated about 12,000 hectares which if multiplied by yield of 3tonnes per hectare would have given 36,000 metric tons.
Out of that, the farmers as at a few weeks ago, hoped to get up to 24,000 tonnes, which would have been 65 percent, and a satisfactory outcome for them considering the COVID-19 challenges.
However, Salim Muhammad, president, Wheat Farmers Association of Nigeria, when asked to confirm if the projection still holds, said there is no way the expectations can still be achieved. “We experienced a sharp drop in productivity due to so many agric and non-agric related factors such as delay in inputs distribution which leads to late planting, poor and insufficient high yielding seed etc.”
Muhammad also explained that the harvest of already mature crops has remained delayed as a result of restrictions on movement, gathering of people and the general lockdown. The wheat farmers, he said, have made a significant loss, which can only be quantified when these lockdowns have been relaxed.
“We can project 30 percent productivity or even less because some farms are yet to be harvested at this period of time, which there is no doubt a loss,” he said.
Poultry – 50 percent decline
When Ezekiel Ibrahim, president, Poultry Association of Nigeria (PAN), gave an estimate of the projected decline in output for this year, he said between 35 to 50 percent was the expected decline, with the upper limit more likely considering the sever disruptions to poultry operations over the course of the lockdown.
“If care is not taken, next year is going to be worse as we don’t have the resources to import and if the farmers cannot produce, we are in a dangerous position,” he said.
Vegetables and Perishable foods – 70 percent losses
Postharvest losses in Nigeria are already high, ranging from 25 to 50 percent depending on crops. However, the lockdown worsened the situation for fresh agricultural produce, mostly grown in the rural areas and having to be transported to cities, where big markets exist with those likely to pay the right price for it.
Akintunde Sawyerr, founder, Agricultural Fresh Produce Growers and Exporters Association of Nigeria (AFGEAN), noted that due to COVID-19 challenges, “up to 70 percent of produce is getting spoiled because it is not reaching the table”.
The pandemic’s impact on the fresh produce value chain according to Sawyerr is twofold; first is supply-meeting demand in the right place at the right time, considering that these goods are not grain and can spoil within hours. Secondly, the resulting spoilage that represents losses for everyone in the value chain from the farmer to the transporter, whom if pulled up at a checkpoint and the vehicle is seized, is at the mercy of law enforcement agents.
Even though production can still be done and harvested in a matter of weeks, the already incurred losses may leave many farmers without motivation to try planting again this year.
Cassava and Rice farmers express optimism
“We don’t hope even 1 percent will be affected,” said Aminu Goronyo, president, Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN), when asked if rice production will be affected this year due to the coronavirus pandemic. “In fact our preparation is to double production this year,” he said.
According to him, rice farmers were given support by the Inspector General of police to, “Mobilise and sensitise our farmers to quickly venture into production because there is no country today that Nigeria will be looking to for food imports. Because of that, the CBN has doubled the support given to us.”
The supposed IG’s pass, according to Goronyo, was to guarantee no farmer was restricted from going to his farm, and because of that “many farmers that were not even into rice have now ventured into rice cultivation,” he said.
On his part, Segun Adewumi, national president, Nigeria Cassava Growers Association (NCGA) said despite the challenges of COVID-19, Cassava, Nigeria’s highest produced staple has not been impacted.
“The effort of the CBN will counter whatever shortage we are supposed to have,” said Adewumi, who explained the apex bank is supporting thousands of its farmers, and this, he says, will ensure Cassava production will not record any decline.
The only problem identified by Adewunmi, was the rainfall pattern, which has not been consistent enough for farmers to carry out necessary planting activities. This view was also shared by AFAN’s Ibrahim, who not only hopes the rains will not affect productivity, but for the general projection on productivity not to be worsened.
