Ahead of the coming 2019 governorship elections, a recent state-wide opinion poll commissioned by ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls shows that 90% of the voters in Sokoto State say that they are absolutely certain to vote in the forthcoming Governorship elections.
Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal has a significant lead and although 35% of the voters are undecided and/or prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate might not make a difference because some of the undecided voters may still end up voting for him, given his broad acceptance across the State.
The polls confirm a two-horse Governorship race between Governor Aminu Tambuwal of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), as all other contestants together scored an insignificant total.
The gender split of the Undecided between women and men is 46:26. The geographical split of the Undecided is a little uneven with Sokoto North (41% Undecided) having a much larger share than Sokoto South and Sokoto East which report 33% and 30% Undecided respectively.
The respondents to our 2019 detailed Sokoto governorship poll tell us that top six (6) reasons for backing Governor Aminu Tambuwal are:- He is Competent (26%), He is a Man of Peace (24%), Continuity (17%), He has the People in Mind (9%), I Just Like Him (8%) and Improving Workers’ Welfare (7%). and Good leadership skills (7%). Interestingly, Only 1% of Governor Tambuwal’s backers say they will vote for him because of Good Projects in the State.
Meanwhile, top 6 reasons for backing Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu are: – For Positive Change (54%), He Will Help the Poor (17%), Because of President Buhari (10%), In Support of My Party (9%), Its Personal to Me (6%), For Youth Employment (4%).
Voter apathy is low all round as a total of 83% of the electorate say that they have given some consideration to the forthcoming elections. Sokoto South leads this particular statistic where a whopping 87% say they have given some thought to the forthcoming Governorship elections. Corresponding figures for Sokoto North and Sokoto East are 82% and 83% respectively.
All respondents interviewed in this poll are registered voters who had obtained their PVCs and that the voters’ sample mimicked the INEC register in terms of both zonal distribution and demography. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote are those between 46-60 and 60+ years.
Governor Aminu Tambuwal has the best possible name recognition (100%) followed very closely by Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu (96%). All other candidates scored below 70% on name recognition.
From the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2019 Governorship elections, the figures put Governor Aminu Tambuwal in a significant lead (with 41% of the votes) over Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu (with 24%). Both candidates enjoy decent support across age groups, but it is striking that Governor Tambuwal’s greatest support is from the Youths aged 18-25 years. Conversely, Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu’s greatest support comes from the 46-60 years age group. Demography therefore favours Governor Aminu Tambuwal.
Also, whilst Governor Aminu Tambuwal’s support is sizeable across male and female voters, Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu has a poor showing amongst female voters, as only 17% of the female voters in the State appear willing to back him.
Governor Aminu Tambuwal’s lead is sizeable and looks unassailable when demography (Youths) and support by female voters are factored in.
It is unlikely that voter turnout can make a big difference on the day as Governor Aminu Tambuwal’s lead appears to be solid all round and with no visible disparity across the three Senatorial Zones; he scores between 40 and 41% in all three Senatorial zones.
Conversely Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu’s support is concentrated in two Senatorial Zones (Sokoto South and Sokoto East) and with a really poor showing in Sokoto North where only 18% of the voters are supporting him. A poor turnout in Sokoto South or Sokoto East therefore also favours Governor Aminu Tambuwal, as does a large turnout in Sokoto North.
Anap Foundation has concluded that Governor Aminu Tambuwal appears set to win this election convincingly.
The margin of error is within the plus or minus 2.20% error margin at a 95% confidence margin.
