Despite a wide array of misgivings over the past days, expectations are now high that the rescheduled Presidential and National Assembly elections will be held across the country this Saturday.
The postponement of the elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) last week threw the entire country into disarray. It also came at a huge cost to INEC, which had already deployed man and material to different parts of the country; the political parties, which had spent huge sums in electoral campaigns and deployed their agents to different polling booths; ordinary citizens who had travelled far and wide to perform their civic duties, including Diaspora Nigerians who returned to the country to cast their votes; local and international observers who had taken positions, and the overall economy which was literally under lockdown. Everybody bore the brunt of the election postponement.
The disappointment of the hopes and aspirations of Nigerians since 2015 by a government which rode to power on the promise of change, understood by many citizens to mean a break from the years of the locust and caterpillars, meant that there would be a high level of voter apathy, though some pundits said it could lead to determination on the part of the citizens to vote out a perceived non-performing government. But the postponement of the elections was expected to negatively affect voter turnout because spirits have been dampened, but more so because many who travelled long distances last Saturday to cast their votes in an election that never was may no longer be able to afford the cost and stress of making such trips a second time.
Voter turnout has been on the decline since 2007, according to INEC figures. In 1999, the year that marked a break from long years of military rule and the country’s return to democracy, Nigeria recorded a voter turnout of 52.26 percent. The figure improved significantly to 69.08 percent in 2003. In 2007, voter turnout moved downward to 57.49 percent. In 2011, the figure was 53.68 percent, and in 2015, voter turnout was 43.65 percent.
Taking into account estimates and analysis of potential PVC collection, voter enthusiasm, voter roll inflation and socio-political conditions in each of Nigeria’s regions, Opeyemi Agbaje and Kehinde Ayanbadejo, both of Lagos-based RTC Advisory Services Ltd, projected voter turnout of 46.6 percent for the 2019 election. This may, however, turn out to be unrealistic as the shift in the election date is expected to take its toll, and the political parties are expected to pay dearly for it in lost votes.
This is why Nigeria cannot afford a derailment of this Saturday’s vote. The main gladiators have traded blames to no end, but this election is not about trading of blames; it is about the economy.
Nigeria is in dire straits. Jobs have been lost in the last four years, with unemployment figures climbing to 23.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018, from 8.2 percent when Buhari took over in 2015.
Poverty rates have spiked, with Nigeria said to have overtaken India as the world’s poverty capital. A June 2018 Brookings Institution report said about 87 million Nigerians lived in extreme poverty as at the end of May 2018, with six citizens sliding into extreme poverty every minute. But the World Poverty Clock, created by Vienna-based World Data Lab, said 91.16 million Nigerians were living below a dollar a day as at February 13, 2019.
“The outlook for poverty alleviation in Nigeria is currently weak. Today extreme poverty in the country is increasing by nearly six people every minute,” said a blog-post on https://worldpoverty.io.
“If current trend persists, we expect this poverty ‘escape rate’ to improve modestly over the next decade, to approximately 3 people every minute. Nevertheless, the overall effect will be muted; by 2030 we estimate the percentage of Nigeria’s population living in extreme poverty will increase from 44.2 percent to 45.5 percent, representing a total of some 120 million people living under $1.90 per day,” it said.
This Saturday’s election is, therefore, a crucial one for Nigeria. INEC cited logistics problem as justification for postponing last Saturday’s polls. It asked for an extra week to put its house in order, and Nigerians obliged. The onus is now on INEC to oblige Nigerians by conducting free, fair and credible polls this Saturday.
Many have argued that INEC has no business handling logistics issues like transporting electoral materials. Some have called for outsourcing of some responsibilities or outright unbundling of INEC. The commission itself agrees it is encumbered, but these are issues that should be revisited later.
For now, all focus should be on holding credible polls tomorrow.
Though over 60 political parties are said to have presented candidates for tomorrow’s presidential election, the contest is believed to be a two-horse race between Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Many analysts see the candidates as either the face of state-led or private sector-led economic direction. Either way, taking Nigeria to the next level or getting the country working again, it is not a tea party.
For political parties going into the elections this Saturday, winning an election is not a do-or-die affair. In a fair contest, only one candidate can emerge winner. And there is life after elections.
Fortunately, former President Goodluck Jonathan set the precedence in 2015 when he accepted defeat even before all the votes were counted. That move returned investor confidence to Nigeria and saved the country from avoidable post-election violence, the type that cost over 800 lives in 2011. Those who lose in a free and fair contest should accept defeat in good faith and allow the country to make progress. The alternative route is tinder waiting to ignite.
CHUKS OLUIGBO
