OPEC signals no change to Nigeria’s oil supply at Russia meeting

OPEC and its allies meeting in Russia indicated Monday they weren’t planning any big changes to their supply deal and most especially that capping oil production from Nigeria and Libya won’t be on the agenda.

There’ll be no discussion of deeper cuts, Saudi Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih told reporters before the gathering.

Oil is trading at just above $48 a barrel for the brent grade.

Without any changes to supply,  the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies will be doubling down on a bet that rising demand will combine with the existing curbs to rapidly deplete fuel stockpiles, buoying prices in the second half of the year. That could prove to be a risky if production from nations not bound by any restrictions, notably U.S. shale producers, keeps growing to fill the gap left by OPEC.

“Of course, rising output from Libya and Nigeria increases market supply,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an emailed statement on Sunday.

“But at the same time we have to remember that demand for oil is also quite high, and the countries that supported the stabilization initiative have been very assiduous in honoring their commitments.”