Late Netherlands election polling suggests small lead for PM Rutte

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was marginally edging out populist leader Geert Wilders in late polling Tuesday as the country’s election campaign went into its final 24 hours.

Three different polls taken through early Monday put Rutte’s liberal “VVD” or People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy on 24 seats in the 150-member lower house, while Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) was on 20, 22 and 24, respectively.

Given the large number of undecided voters and the margins of error, the pollsters said the election was too close to call.

The leaders of all 14 parties likely to take at least one seat were holding a last televised debate Tuesday evening, although commentators expected little in the way of fireworks.

The weekend confrontation with Turkey about a rally planned in the consulate in Rotterdam to drum up support for a referendum on additional powers for President Recep Erdogan cast its shadow on the final days of the campaign.

Rutte called for calm, rejecting a demand from the centre-right Christian Democrat (CDA) leader Sybrand Buma, whose party is lying third on 19 seats in pre-election polling, for the European Union’s association agreement with Turkey to be terminated.

“That would have an escalating effect,” Rutte told national public broadcaster NOS, while noting that the agreement was increasingly out of date “in a large number of points.”

During Monday evening’s head-to-head debate with Rutte, Wilders demanded stronger action against Turks in the Netherlands who show greater loyalty to Turkey than their adopted country, calling them a “fifth column.”

Viewers called the debate a win for Rutte, who once again played the prime ministerial card to effect.

“Rutte appeared to score best in virtually all areas. People said his tone was better, more convincing than Wilders,” presenters EenVandaag said on the basis of a survey of 9,000 viewers. Wilders had previously absented himself from televised debates.

But the pollsters highlighted the uncertainties. Some 40 per cent have yet to make up their minds and 10 per cent still have no idea how they will vote.

In the debate, Rutte made clear that he would not cooperate with Wilders, whatever the outcome.

“Not even in a tolerance structure – no, never, no,” he said.

Wilders provided “tolerance”, his party did not join the government, but promised to give it legislative support, to a previous short-lived Rutte government between 2010 and 2012.

“Nobody believes Mark Rutte any more,” Wilders responded, constantly stressing his anti-Islam theme.

Behind the VVD, PVV and CDA, the socially liberal D66 is on 18 seats according to the polls.

Green-Left is on 17, the Socialist Party on 15 and the much-diminished Labour Party (PvdA) on 11 make up the list of major parties. Other parties are on five per cent or less, which translates to six seats or less.

Since 2012, Rutte’s VVD has governed in coalition with the PvdA, the two parties having a narrow majority.

Both have seen support fall, with Wilders’ PVV the main beneficiary.

With no clear outcome in sight and the firewall around the PVV erected by all other major parties, coalition talks are predicted to be difficult and drawn-out.