The world’s biggest economies by 2031: IMF forecast

 

The ranking of the world’s largest economies is expected to shift by 2031, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook update. The figures track nominal gross domestic product (GDP) across 2026, 2028 and 2031, measured in billions of US dollars.

The data shows that the United States and China remain in the top two positions throughout the period. Both economies continue to expand in size, while other major economies adjust their positions within the global ranking. India records the largest change in output among the top economies. Brazil, the United Kingdom and several European economies also record increases over the period.

Read also: The top 10 largest economies by GDP in 2026

Here are the projected top 10 economies by 2031, with GDP changes from 2026 to 2031.

1. United States

The United States remains in first place across all years in the projection. GDP is estimated at 32,384 in 2026, rising to 35,066 in 2028 and reaching 39,031 by 2031. This represents a total increase of 20.5%.

The United States adds about 6.6 trillion in output over the period. The gap between the United States and China remains large throughout the projection, with no change in position.

2. China

China remains in second place across the same period. GDP is projected at 20,852 in 2026, increasing to 23,260 in 2028 and reaching 27,497 by 2031. This represents a growth rate of 31.9%.

China adds around 6.6 trillion in output, similar in scale to the United States in absolute terms. However, it remains behind the United States by around 11.5 trillion by 2031.

3. Germany

Germany remains in third place. GDP is projected at 5,453 in 2026, rising to 5,819 in 2028 and 6,352 by 2031. This is a total increase of 16.5%.

Germany maintains its position ahead of Japan and the United Kingdom throughout the period.

4. Japan

Japan remains in fourth place. GDP is expected at 4,379 in 2026, increasing to 4,744 in 2028 and 5,128 by 2031. This represents growth of 17.1%.

Japan’s position remains stable, with no change relative to Germany above and the United Kingdom below.

5. United Kingdom

The United Kingdom remains in fifth place. GDP is projected at 4,265 in 2026, rising to 4,675 in 2028 and 5,403 by 2031. This represents an increase of 26.7%.

The United Kingdom closes some distance with Japan over the period but remains behind in overall output.

6. India

India remains in sixth place. GDP is projected at 4,153 in 2026, rising to 5,059 in 2028 and 6,792 by 2031. This represents growth of 63.5%, the highest rate among the top 10 economies.

India records the largest absolute increase in ranking group terms. It narrows the gap with the United Kingdom and moves further ahead of France.

7. France

France remains in seventh place. GDP is projected at 3,596 in 2026, increasing to 3,776 in 2028 and 4,117 by 2031. This represents growth of 14.5%.

France remains stable in position relative to Italy above and below.

8. Italy

Italy remains in eighth place. GDP is projected at 2,738 in 2026, rising to 2,887 in 2028 and 3,128 by 2031. This represents growth of 14.2%.

Italy remains behind France and ahead of Russia across the projection period.

9. Russia

Russia remains in ninth place. GDP is projected at 2,656 in 2026, falling to 2,552 in 2028 and recovering slightly to 2,615 by 2031. This represents a small decline of 1.6%.

Russia remains within the top 10 but shows limited movement compared with other economies.

10. Brazil

Brazil remains in tenth place. GDP is projected at 2,636 in 2026, rising to 2,879 in 2028 and 3,379 by 2031. This represents growth of 28.2%.

Brazil records steady gains and reduces distance with Italy and Russia over the period.