Cooking gas supply slips 11% in May amid soaring prices

Nigeria’s cooking gas supply buckled in May, falling 11 percent just as households needed it most, findings by BusinessDay have revealed.

Domestic output of Liquefied Petroleum Gas dropped to 4 kilotonnes a day, down from roughly 4.5 kilotonnes in April, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

The shortfall landed at the worst possible moment: prices were already spiking, driven by a supply shock tied to the US-Iran war, and the country’s depots simply couldn’t keep up with demand from over 200 million people.

Consumption fell too, to 4.5 kilotonnes a day from 4.8 kilotonnes in April, but not because Nigerians needed less gas. They needed it and couldn’t afford it. Prices surged past N2,000 per kilogram last month, pushing families toward cheaper, dirtier alternatives like charcoal and firewood.

The numbers tell a story of a market running below what the country actually needs. Nigeria’s average daily demand sits at 3.9 kilotonnes of LPG, meaning even April’s supply level left little room for error. May’s drop turned a tight market into a stretched one.

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Imports offered scant relief, rising just 1 percent in the period, nowhere near enough to offset the domestic slide. And the trend isn’t new. Supply has lurched between highs and lows for roughly a year, with May’s output down from 4.6 kilotonnes a year earlier, a sign the market hasn’t found stable footing despite new investment in local refining capacity.

That investment is showing up in the numbers, just not enough of it. Dangote Refinery and other local refiners supplied 0.64 kilotonnes during the month. NLNG contributed 1.63 kilotonnes, while other processing plants added 1.68 kilotonnes. Combined, domestic producers are doing real work, but the math still doesn’t close the gap between what Nigeria pumps out and what it burns through.

Prices reflect the strain. Filling stations across the country are charging upward of N2,000 per kilogram, with costs varying sharply by location, a familiar pattern in a market where logistics and distribution bottlenecks often matter as much as raw supply.

Perhaps the most pointed number in the NMDPRA report: Nigeria’s LPG reserves currently amount to just 11 days of cover. For a country of Africa’s largest population, that’s a thin buffer against any further disruption, whether geopolitical, logistical, or seasonal.

The report underscores what marketers and officials have been saying for months: Nigeria needs more gas, fast. Without a meaningful boost in domestic supply or import volumes, households already squeezed by inflation may keep trading clean cooking fuel for smoke-filled alternatives, a step backwards for both public health and the government’s clean energy ambitions.