Outgoing APC governors head for high-stakes senatorial battles

…Yahaya, Dankwambo set for epic Gombe North clash

…Abiodun battles Daniel’s camp in Ogun East for support

…Uzodinma’s Senate bid reshapes Imo power calculations

The conclusion of the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial primaries has set the stage for what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political battles of the 2027 general elections, as several outgoing governors position themselves for a transition from state houses to the National Assembly

Seven serving governors secured APC senatorial tickets during the party’s primaries. They are Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri (Adamawa Central), Governor Dapo Abiodun (Ogun East), Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe North), Governor Hope Uzodinma (Imo West), Governor Mai Mala Buni (Yobe East), Governor Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa North), and Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara Central).

Although the governors joined the race with the advantages of incumbency, extensive political structures and considerable influence within their respective states, political observers say they are contending with several forces.

While some appear firmly in control of their party structures, others face internal dissent, opposition challenges and succession battles that could affect their electoral fortunes. Analysts point to recent political developments where prominent figures with significant influence failed to secure their ambitions despite enjoying institutional advantages.

The defeats suffered by President Bola Tinubu’s ministers who recently resigned to seek elective offices have reinforced the belief that political power does not always translate into electoral victory.

As campaigns gradually gather momentum, the senatorial races involving the outgoing governors are increasingly being viewed as referendums on their popularity, political relevance and ability to maintain control of their support bases after leaving office.

Yahaya, Dankwambo head for epic Gombe North clash

Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya’s quest to move from the Government House to the Senate is expected to produce one of the most compelling political contests in northern Nigeria.

Standing in his path is Senator Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, a former governor and the incumbent representative of Gombe North Senatorial District. The rivalry between the two political heavyweights stretches back more than a decade and has shaped the political landscape of Gombe State.

Their political contest began in earnest after Dankwambo emerged governor in 2011, frustrating Yahaya’s ambition to succeed former governor Danjuma Goje. Yahaya later challenged Dankwambo in the 2015 governorship election but was unsuccessful.

However, the APC stalwart staged a dramatic comeback in 2019, defeating the PDP and ending Dankwambo’s party’s hold on power. He consolidated his influence with a second-term victory in 2023 and now seeks to crown his political journey with a Senate seat.

Dankwambo, meanwhile, remains one of the PDP’s strongest assets in the state. His supporters cite his experience as governor and senator, as well as his enduring grassroots appeal, as factors that could give him an edge.

With the APC controlling the state government and the PDP banking on Dankwambo’s popularity, observers believe the contest could rank among the fiercest senatorial battles in the country.

Abiodun faces rift with Daniel, supporters in Ogun East

Governor Dapo Abiodun may have secured the APC ticket for Ogun East, but political analysts say his greatest challenge could come from within his own party.

His emergence reportedly deepened existing tensions with Senator Gbenga Daniel and members of the political structure loyal to the former governor. Daniel, who currently represents Ogun East in the Senate, had hoped to retain the ticket but lost out in the contest.

Signs of the strained relationship became apparent during the primary season, with reports of disagreements between supporters of both camps. Although the APC leadership has sought to project unity, party insiders say reconciliation efforts are still ongoing.

Observers note that Daniel remains a formidable political force in Ogun politics. Having governed the state for eight years and maintained a strong grassroots network across Ogun East, his influence continues to command respect among party members and voters alike.

While Abiodun enjoys the advantages of incumbency and party backing, analysts believe he will need to carefully manage relations with Daniel’s supporters to avoid internal divisions that opposition parties could exploit during the general election.

Fintiri faces internal opposition in Adamawa Central

Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri’s emergence as APC candidate for Adamawa Central has generated controversy, making his Senate ambition one of the most debated among the outgoing governors.

Several aspirants and stakeholders questioned the conduct of the primary election, alleging irregularities and lack of transparency. The controversy sparked protests in parts of the senatorial district and triggered calls for a review of the exercise.

Among the critics was senatorial aspirant Sarki Fulani Mubi, who petitioned the party’s national leadership and accused the primary committee of compromising the process. The APC Elders Forum in Adamawa Central also expressed concerns, warning that lingering grievances could affect the party’s performance in the district if not adequately addressed.

Fintiri has consistently defended the exercise, insisting that the primary was free, fair and credible. According to him, the few issues recorded were administrative errors that did not substantially affect the outcome.

Despite his confidence, analysts say the governor’s immediate task is to reconcile aggrieved aspirants and restore unity within the party, stressing that failure to do so could provide opposition parties with an opportunity to capitalise on existing divisions.

Uzodinma’s Senate ambition sparks fresh political calculations in Imo

Governor Hope Uzodinma joined the Senate race as one of the most influential politicians in the South-East, but his ambition has also generated significant political debate.

His victory over former governor Rochas Okorocha in the APC senatorial primary underscored his dominance within the party and reinforced his status as a major political force in Imo State.

Many political observers believe Uzodinma enjoys advantages that could make him difficult to defeat, including his extensive political network, strong party structure and close relationship with President Bola Tinubu.

Yet his Senate ambition presents an unusual constitutional and political dilemma. While members of the next Senate are expected to be inaugurated in June 2027, Uzodimma’s tenure as governor is scheduled to end in January 2028.

Should he win the election, he may be required to resign before the expiration of his tenure to assume his Senate seat.

The situation has already sparked discussions about succession and the future direction of politics in Imo State. Analysts believe his decision could significantly influence political alliances, governorship calculations and power dynamics ahead of 2027.

Sule appears well positioned for Nasarawa North Senate race

Governor Abdullahi Sule is regarded as one of the governors facing relatively limited internal resistance after securing the APC ticket for Nasarawa North.

He defeated former Deputy Governor Silas Ali Agara by a wide margin in the primary election, a result that many observers interpreted as evidence of his strong influence within the party. The governor enjoys substantial support among APC stakeholders and political leaders across the district, giving him a solid platform heading into the general election.

Nevertheless, analysts caution that opposition parties could still mount a serious challenge. They also note that Sule’s Senate ambition is closely linked to the succession battle in Nasarawa State, where various political interests are already positioning themselves for the governorship race.

AbdulRazaq faces limited resistance in Kwara Senate bid

Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq appears to be among the least threatened outgoing governors seeking Senate seats. The governor emerged as the APC candidate for Kwara Central without significant opposition and reportedly enjoyed broad support from party stakeholders throughout the district.

Political observers say his control of the APC structure and his standing as the dominant political figure in Kwara Central have helped neutralise internal resistance to his ambition. Observers, however, say some elements appear to be working against his ambition within the senatorial district.

Buni on smooth path

Governor Mai Mala Buni appears to enjoy one of the smoothest paths to the Senate after securing the APC ticket for Yobe East unopposed.

His emergence was facilitated by the withdrawal and endorsement of incumbent Senator Musa Mustapha, a development widely interpreted as evidence of Buni’s firm grip on the APC structure in Yobe State.

Unlike some governors who encountered resistance during the primaries, Buni’s candidacy attracted little controversy.