Crude oil supply to local refineries fell 53% short of target in Q1

Nigeria’s drive for energy self-sufficiency faced a major threat in the first quarter of 2026, as crude oil producers failed to meet the supply target of 61.9 million barrels to local refineries in the period.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, out of the 61.9 million barrels allocated to producers in the period, actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels. This represents only 47% of set target in period.

A breakdown of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) report showed that in the month of January, following consultations with stakeholders, including crude oil producers, the Commission mandated producers to supply 22.6 million barrels to the local refiners.

The report showed that while producers exceeded expectations, offering 25.3 million barrels, they only supplied 9.2 million barrels to local refiners.

Also, in February, the Commission allocated 20.5 million barrels to local refineries, but actual supply was down at 9.1 million barrels. In March, there was a modest improvement in deliveries, which rose to 10.1 million barrels.

The shortfall between volumes offered and actual deliveries, according to the Commission is primarily due to pricing gaps between producers and domestic refiners, as it emphasised that the current framework operates on a willing buyer, willing seller basis, which continues to shape transaction outcomes.

“A summary of the monthly allocation shows that 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries during the quarter, while producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels. However, actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36-46 per cent as of the end of the first quarter (Q1) 2026.

“In the month of January, following consultations with stakeholders, including crude oil producers, the Commission mandated producers to supply 22.6 million barrels to the local refiners. Producers exceeded expectations, offering 25.3 million barrels, representing a rise of 11.9%, or an additional 2.7 million barrels, in the month. However, 9.2 million barrels were ultimately supplied to local refiners.

“In February, the Commission, in discharging its DCSO, allocated 20.5 million barrels to local refineries, but producers offered slightly less at 19.8 million barrels, missing the target by 700,000 barrels. Actual supply was down at 9.1 million barrels.

“In March, there was a modest improvement in deliveries, which rose to 10.1 million barrels, up from 9.2 million barrels in January and 9.1 million barrels in February. During the same period, DCSO allocations stood at 18.8 million barrels, while producers offered a significantly higher 23.6 million barrels, representing an excess of 4.8 million barrels or 25.5%.

“Despite these developments, the Commission reaffirmed its commitment to achieving the government’s objective of energy sufficiency.

“Leveraging the framework of the PIA, 2021, the Commission aims to sustain recent gains in crude oil production while continuously refining the DCSO methodology to enhance transparency, efficiency, ensuring that local refineries are supplied as committed,” the Commission stated.