ADC faces storms, risks exclusion from ballot

…Bala Mohammed may weigh other options

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is on the brink of exclusion from the 2027 general elections following a deepening internal crisis that has effectively left the party without a recognised national leadership.

The crisis stems from a recent Court of Appeal judgement that triggered uncertainty within the party, with political analysts warning that the timing could severely undermine ADC’s readiness for the 2027 polls.

The situation worsened on Wednesday when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that it would no longer recognise or accept correspondence from either the David Mark-led faction or the rival group led by Rafiu Bala.

INEC said the decision followed its review of the Appellate Court judgement delivered on March 12, 2026.

A statement by Mohammed Kudu, Chairman of Information and Voter Education at INEC, indicated that the Commission would also suspend monitoring of all party activities, including meetings, congresses, and conventions, until the leadership dispute is resolved at the Federal High Court.

It further disclosed plans to remove David Mark’s name from its official portal, effectively leaving the party without recognised national executives.

Political stakeholders have expressed concern that INEC’s stance could prevent the ADC from fielding candidates in 2027, as the process of organising congresses and primaries has been stalled. The party had earlier scheduled its national convention for April 14, 2026, alongside a series of ward, local government, and state congresses.

Read also: Agric ministry disrupts ADC briefing at Yar’Adua centre in Abuja

INEC’s timetable indicates that party primaries will hold between April 23 and May 30, 2026, while public campaigns are expected to commence in August. With no recognised leadership, analysts said ADC risks missing these critical deadlines.

Bernard Mikko, a former member of the House of Representatives from Rivers State, told BusinessDay in a telephone interview that INEC had taken steps that could effectively prevent the ADC from fielding candidates for the 2027 general elections.

Mikko, who is also a former governorship aspirant, warned that the situation poses a serious threat to the party’s electoral prospects and democracy at large.

“If this situation continues, the ADC may not be able to field candidates for the 2027 polls,” he said. He questioned the rationale behind INEC’s decision, stressing the need for credibility in the electoral process.

“We see no justification for this action by INEC. Nigerians expect the 2027 general elections to be free, fair, and credible; one that will also be seen as such by the international community,” Mikko added.

Similarly, Chekwas Okorie, elder statesman and former Presidential candidate, expressed concern that INEC’s decision has placed the ADC in a precarious position, raising the risk of the party being excluded from the 2027 elections.

In a separate telephone interview with BusinessDay, Okorie said, “INEC’s action has put the ADC in serious jeopardy. It raises fears that the party may not be able to field candidates if this situation persists.”

He further noted that recent political realignments, including the entry of former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and the planned defection of Bauchi State governor to the ADC may have unsettled the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

“INEC’s decision is troubling, especially considering that the same commission previously monitored the party’s national convention from which the current leadership emerged.

“The President must act to prevent a breakdown of order. There is a growing perception that INEC’s actions could limit genuine political competition ahead of 2027. That is a dangerous path for our democracy,” he said.

He also questioned what he described as the ruling party’s apparent anxiety despite its political dominance.

“It is difficult to understand why a party with control of the majority of states and the National Assembly would appear uneasy about open electoral competition. Nigerians deserve a transparent and credible process in 2027,” Okorie added.

Jackson Lekan Ojo, political analyst and former chieftain of the APC told BusinessDay in a telephone interview that INEC’s action poses a serious threat to democracy.

However, he disclosed that coalition leaders have already devised a “Plan B” that would ultimately serve their objectives, though he declined to provide further details, saying it would be unveiled in due course.

“The coalition is smarter. There will be an old wine in a new bottle soon,” he said. He added that the coalition had anticipated such moves from INEC and had accordingly put in place strategic measures to safeguard its political ambitions.

Recall that Rafiu Bala had approached the Federal High Court in Abuja to challenge the legitimacy of the David Mark-led caretaker committee, setting off the legal battle now threatening the party’s electoral prospects.

However, the ADC has rejected INEC’s interpretation of the ruling. In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the party accused the commission of bias and alleged that it was acting under pressure from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The party further claimed that the decision forms part of a broader attempt to weaken opposition forces ahead of 2027.

BusinessDay reports that opposition coalition had, in 2025, adopted the ADC as its political platform, naming Mark and Aregbesola as interim leaders to spearhead its challenge against the APC.

Meanwhile, the defection plans of Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, to the ADC have been thrown into uncertainty following INEC’s delisting of the ADC leadership led by David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola.

Sources within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) told BusinessDay that the governor’s planned move to the ADC is now in limbo, with growing uncertainty over the party’s stability.

According to insiders, Mohammed may consider alternative political platforms if the ADC’s leadership crisis persists.

The governor had, on Tuesday, openly indicated his intention to defect to the ADC rather than the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), citing unresolved internal disputes within the PDP.

Speaking while receiving an ADC delegation led by former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, Mohammed described the PDP as “headless” and said reconciliation efforts within the party had failed.

He further disclosed that David Mark had invited him to join the ADC, which he described at the time as a viable and stable political platform.

“We have found ourselves in a very serious ambivalence where our party is headless. We have to find a place within the opposition. That is where our fate and political destiny are taking us, and the ADC appears to be a very enduring and acceptable platform,” Mohammed said.

However, barely 24 hours after the visit, the political equation appeared to shift. The National Chairman of the APC, Nentawe Yilwatda, held a closed-door meeting with the governor at the Government House in Bauchi.

Yilwatda, who was accompanied by Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, left without addressing journalists, fuelling speculation over the purpose of the meeting.

A source from Bauchi State told our correspondent that the governor’s planned defection to the ADC may be put on hold pending clearer signals on the party’s leadership situation.

“No one would want to move into a party that is enmeshed in a leadership crisis at a critical stage like this,” the source said.

A chieftain of the PDP in the North East, Aminu Yakudima, also noted that the unfolding situation may ultimately force a strategic recalibration, as Mohammed weighs his options in an increasingly fluid political landscape ahead of the 2027 elections.