Improved weather to lift Nigeria’s cocoa midcrop output, quality

Nigeria’s 2025-2026 cocoa midcrop output is expected to rise, bolstered by improved weather conditions in key growing regions, which is also expected to enhance bean quality.

Farmers told BusinessDay that the intermittent rainfall since the beginning of the year has helped prevent dry spells in key producing states, which has boosted output.

They added that it has also improved the quality of the beans as farmers can adequately dry them when harvested.

Adeola Adegoke, national president of the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria, projected output to increase by five percent when compared to the 2024-2025 midcrop season.

“We have seen a mix of sunshine and rainfall, and this is supporting strong cocoa pod development,” Adegoke said.

“The weather has been good. The intermittent rainfall that has helped our cocoa produce well during this midcrop,” he noted. “With what we have seen so far in major producing states, output will increase by five percent,” he projected.

Nigeria is the world’s fourth top grower of cocoa with 315,000MT, according to a 2025 quarterly production bulletin of the International Cocoa Council (ICCO).

The country has two cocoa harvest seasons, which include the smaller mid-crop from April to June, and the main crop from October to December. The main-crop accounts for about 70 percent of Nigeria’s cocoa output, while the midcrop accounts for 30 percent of the total production for the season.

Adegoke explained that the increased output will add to the already saturated global cocoa markets, which have squeezed farmers’ earnings.

“This will worsen the oversupply pressure already on farmers,” he noted, explaining the plight of farmers since the free fall of the beans.

Ample supplies from West Africa – the region accounting for about 70 percent of global production- are weighing on cocoa prices.

Prices have crashed from $12,900, a 2024 peak, to $2,897 per ton, according to daily trade data from ICCO as at the time of writing. Locally, prices have dropped 83 percent from a peak of N15 million to N2.5 million per ton.

Felix Oladunjoye, chairman of Cocoa Processors Association of Nigeria (COPAN), explained that the soil moisture levels created by intermittent rainfall are good for cocoa pod growth.

“We didn’t experience the dry spells this year because there has been intermittent rainfall,” Oladunjoye said.

“The weather is perfect, and we have enough sunlight for drying the beans,” he noted. “Our bean quality will be better this year compared to last year,” he added.